FORMLAB RACING
THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT
Thirsk · 16:10
Class 6 · 7f · Good to Firm (Good in places)
GENERATED 2026-07-16 · 10 RUNNERS PROFILED
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 32.9%winner in the projected 1–2–3 68.5%73 races · latest settled day: #1 10/24, top-3 18/24
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners at this course and distance typically spend 48.71% of their energy before the final 2f and sit around 3 at halfway, 0.21s off the lead. The measured order tops CAPTAIN CESS (IRE) on 61, 2pts clear of EMERALD ARMY (IRE) and COCONUT BAY (both 59). CAPTAIN CESS (IRE): held up without the late gear (10th of 10 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front. The shape danger is FOREVER TWENTY — the strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 3
CAPTAIN CESS (IRE)
OR 55 · Zak Wheatley / Declan Carroll
MARKET 5.3
61.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−The top rating in this field (61.0)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare result
2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 6
EMERALD ARMY (IRE)
OR 54 · James Sullivan / Ruth Carr
MARKET 7
59.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−4lb below his last winning mark (54 today vs 58)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #2 in this field (59.0)A course winner (1 from 5 here)
3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 4
COCONUT BAY
OR 53 · Jason Hart / Tristan Davidson
MARKET 3.9
59.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 6+ / 1−9lb below his last winning mark (53 today vs 62)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #3 in this field (59.0)Race-fit — ran 8 days ago
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1COCONUT BAYnet +6race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, quickest early type, sharp from the stalls, runs the dominant winning style here, yard hot − burns early and empties
2CAPTAIN CESS (IRE)net +3figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, yard positive in today’s setup − burns early and empties, clock FADE
3EMERALD ARMY (IRE)net +3figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), top-2 speed vs its fields, yard positive in today’s setup − burns early and empties
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
Worth A Second Look
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
FAIR ISLE SIOUX  FIGURE #4
drops in class and returns quickly — the two angles our testing shows genuinely tighten a profile.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
even/unclear early shape (2 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by front-runners 41% · prominent racers 30% (44 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Sharp, relatively short finish; suits horses already in position — poor for a horse needing time to organise. Winners’ energy signature: 48.71% spent early (band 47.79–49.09%, 58 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~3 at halfway, 0.21s off the lead). Only 2 confirmed early types — the likely leader can dictate, a real edge at a track this front/prominent-biased.
Where the pace is drawn · 10 runners · stalls 1–10
12345678910
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–10).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: CAPTAIN CESS (IRE) is 0/3 on softer ground · EMERALD ARMY (IRE) is 1/7 on softer ground · COCONUT BAY is 0/9 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
CAPTAIN CESS (IRE) MID 52.3% 96.1 held up without the late gear (10th of 10 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
EMERALD ARMY (IRE) HELD-UP 50.6% 97.6 held up without the late gear (5th of 10 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
COCONUT BAY PROMINENT 51.5% 96.7 the quickest of today's early types, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f · sharp from the stalls
FAIR ISLE SIOUX MID 50.1% 96.5 held up without the late gear (9th of 10 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
NIGHT EMPEROR (IRE) MID 50.6% 97.4 held up without the late gear (6th of 10 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
ELASHGAR (IRE) MID 49.5% 100.8 the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
MISEMERALD (IRE) MID 50.4% 99.0 the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
FOREVER TWENTY HELD-UP 49.6% 100.9 the strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
CROWN OF DREAMS PROMINENT 50.3% 98.1 just behind the quickest early pair — presses, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f
BREEZE STAR (IRE) MID 51.5% 97.0 held up without the late gear (7th of 10 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
COCONUT BAYPROMINENTtypically ~2.1 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
CROWN OF DREAMSPROMINENTtypically ~1.4 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.17s off the field’s best
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1 CAPTAIN CESS (IRE) MID
DRAW 3 · OR 55 · Zak Wheatley / Declan Carroll
MARKET 5.3
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
61.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
61.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 66
Official mark (OR)
55 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 9 tries
Days since last run
31
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 96.12% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 6 · 5.5f · rated 612ndClass 6 · 6.1f · rated 666thClass 6 · 8.0f · rated 4012thClass 6 · 8.1f · rated —4thClass 6 · 8.0f · rated 43
Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for CAPTAIN CESS (IRE)best 66needs 59–612025-04-20 · TFR 62 · 8f · Firm · C62025-06-01 · TFR 62 · 8.34f · Good · C62025-07-19 · TFR 43 · 8f · Soft · C62025-10-23 · TFR 40 · 8f · Slow · C62026-05-21 · TFR 66 · 6.07f · Good · C62026-06-15 · TFR 61 · 5.5f · Gd/Frm · C620 Apr 2515 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Declan Carroll · 504 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.3 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days14/1967.1%0.87/4814.6%1.65
In fields of 8-1118/2277.9%0.847/5812.1%1.33
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 6-7 company15/14710.2%0.922/306.7%0.64
Over 7-8f trips5/1084.6%0.62/345.9%0.8
Too few runners to read reliably
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)18/17310.4%1.121/911.1%1.56
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 65 at/around today's trip, clears the ~59.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 10
+0.02 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 10
+0.11s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed10th of 10
96.1%
One-paced late
Stride length2nd of 10
7.41 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
15 Jun 26Wetherby5fGd/Frm3rdTrue41.7 +1.00102.8+0.45
1 Sep 25Windsor8fSoft12thTrue38.0 -0.1086.8+0.13
19 Jul 25Ripon8fSoft4thTrue37.5 -0.2092.0+0.00
1 Jun 25Nottingham8fGood3rdTrue39.3 -0.7698.5-0.18
9 Aug 24Newmarket7fGood3rdTrue39.8 +0.1899.6+0.15
25 May 24Windsor6fGd/Frm9thTrue—97.1—
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.46slow2f+0.57fast3f+0.46par4f+0.27par5f+0.16par6f+0.17par
Timed runs 2024-05-25 to 2026-06-15. · 1 run(s) have no recorded top speed; 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
The top rating in this field (61.0)Lost roughly 2.0 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultNEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.08 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“waited with, headway over 2f out, not clear run soon after, kept on final 1f”
#2 EMERALD ARMY (IRE) HELD-UP
DRAW 6 · OR 54 · James Sullivan / Ruth Carr
MARKET 7
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−
59.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
59.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 68
Official mark (OR)
54 · last won off 58
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 20 tries · below market expectation (0.52)
Days since last run
24
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.3s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 97.58% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
6thClass 6 · 7.0f · rated 598thClass 6 · 7.4f · rated 412ndClass 6 · 6.9f · rated 622ndClass 6 · 7.0f · rated 614thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 52
Career sheet · last 18 months · 19 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for EMERALD ARMY (IRE)best 68needs 59–612025-04-12 · TFR 65 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C62025-04-22 · TFR 65 · 7f · Good · C62025-05-22 · TFR 65 · 7.16f · Slow · C62025-06-06 · TFR 62 · 6f · Good · C62025-06-26 · TFR 61 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C62025-07-20 · TFR 37 · 5.99f · Good · C62025-07-23 · TFR 68 · 7.03f · Gd/Sft · C62025-08-18 · TFR 62 · 7.03f · Gd/Frm · C62025-09-09 · TFR 58 · 7.03f · Gd/Frm · C62025-09-27 · TFR 44 · 8.06f · Std · C62025-10-17 · TFR 51 · 7f · Good · C62025-10-28 · TFR 61 · 5.96f · Soft · C62025-11-05 · TFR 13 · 7.07f · Soft · C62026-04-18 · TFR 51 · 6f · Good · C62026-05-07 · TFR 52 · 5.99f · Good · C62026-05-21 · TFR 61 · 7.03f · Good · C62026-05-29 · TFR 62 · 6.89f · Good · C62026-06-16 · TFR 41 · 7.44f · Good · C62026-06-22 · TFR 59 · 7.03f · Firm · C612 Apr 2522 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ruth Carr · 1256 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)37/35310.5%1.13/2313.0%1.3
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Below their last winning mark15/14510.3%1.095/746.8%0.61
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦38/4638.2%0.959/1476.1%0.62
Over 7-8f trips50/45511.0%1.1810/1476.8%0.64
On turf58/52111.1%1.2312/1597.5%0.73
Too few runners to read reliably
At Thirsk (small sample)3/614.9%0.661/166.2%0.68
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 66 at/around today's trip, clears the ~59.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 10
+0.11 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph9th of 10
+0.37s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 10
97.6%
One-paced late
Stride length5th of 10
7.29 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
22 Jun 26Catterick Bridge7fFirm6thTrue41.0 +0.0598.9+0.28
16 Jun 26Beverley7fGood8thFast early40.5 +0.4092.7+0.30
29 May 26Carlisle6fGood2ndTrue38.4 +0.1497.2+0.68
21 May 26Catterick Bridge7fGood2nd—41.1 +0.3299.5+0.46
7 May 26Redcar5fGood4thTrue42.2 +0.0098.4+0.19
18 Apr 26Thirsk6fGood5thTrue40.7 -0.2598.8+0.29
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.30slow2f+0.61par3f+1.05slow4f+1.13par5f+1.04fast6f+0.49par7f+0.38par
Timed runs 2026-04-18 to 2026-06-22. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
4lb below his last winning mark (54 today vs 58)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #2 in this field (59.0)Historically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 5 here)
LTO comment
“held up, pushed along home turn, progress wide approaching final 1f, never on terms”
#3 COCONUT BAY PROMINENT
DRAW 4 · OR 53 · Jason Hart / Tristan Davidson
MARKET 3.9
Yard mixed — leans for · 6+ / 1−
59.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
59.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 69
Official mark (OR)
53 · last won off 62
Record at today's distance
6 wins from 42 tries · beats market expectation (1.13)
Days since last run
8
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.5s)
Usually races prominent and weakens · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 96.66% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 6 · 7.0f · rated 594thClass 6 · 7.1f · rated 577thClass 5 · 5.8f · rated 3211thClass 6 · 7.0f · rated 273rdClass 6 · 7.2f · rated 62
Career sheet · last 18 months · 29 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for COCONUT BAYbest 69needs 59–612025-01-15 · TFR 41 · 7.06f · Std · C62025-01-30 · TFR 37 · 7.06f · Std · C62025-02-10 · TFR 49 · 7.16f · Std/Slow · C62025-02-18 · TFR 54 · 7.16f · Slow · C62025-03-11 · TFR 50 · 7.16f · Std · C62025-03-18 · TFR 42 · 7.16f · Std · C62025-04-02 · TFR 55 · 7.07f · Good · C62025-04-09 · TFR 46 · 7.03f · Good · C62025-04-21 · TFR 49 · 7.16f · Std · C62025-05-02 · TFR 58 · 7.07f · Good · C62025-05-12 · TFR 53 · 7.03f · Gd/Frm · C62025-06-10 · TFR 62 · 7.03f · Gd/Frm · C62025-06-11 · TFR 53 · 6.03f · Gd/Frm · C62025-06-21 · TFR 66 · 7.23f · Gd/Frm · C62025-07-09 · TFR 69 · 7.03f · Gd/Frm · C52025-07-23 · TFR 47 · 7.03f · Gd/Sft · C62025-08-08 · TFR 59 · 7.07f · Gd/Frm · C62025-08-18 · TFR 69 · 7.03f · Gd/Frm · C62025-08-29 · TFR 67 · 7.99f · Good · C62025-10-01 · TFR 44 · 7.03f · Soft · C52025-10-09 · TFR 44 · 7.23f · Heavy · C52025-10-18 · TFR 47 · 7.03f · Gd/Sft · C42025-11-05 · TFR 43 · 7.07f · Soft · C62026-04-08 · TFR 45 · 7.03f · Good · C52026-05-05 · TFR 62 · 7.23f · Gd/Frm · C62026-05-11 · TFR 27 · 7.03f · Good · C62026-06-08 · TFR 32 · 5.83f · Gd/Sft · C52026-06-30 · TFR 57 · 7.07f · Gd/Frm · C62026-07-08 · TFR 59 · 7.03f · Gd/Frm · C615 Jan 258 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tristan Davidson · 273 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 8 to 14 days8/6711.9%1.024/1921.1%2.0
At this time of year (Q3)13/8515.3%1.443/1030.0%1.94
Below their last winning mark3/1717.6%1.342/1414.3%1.31
On turf ✦18/12914.0%1.318/4617.4%1.3
In Class 6-7 company11/10210.8%1.014/1921.1%1.19
In fields of 8-1111/1248.9%0.845/3514.3%1.18
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 7-8f trips6/767.9%0.851/119.1%0.69
Too few runners to read reliably
At Thirsk (small sample)0/60.0%0.00/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 69 at/around today's trip, clears the ~59.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields8th of 10
-0.15 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 10
-0.04s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 4 of 6
Finish · closing speed8th of 10
96.7%
One-paced late
Stride length8th of 10
7.19 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
8 Jul 26Catterick Bridge7fGd/Frm3rd—41.6 +0.0098.1-0.14—
30 Jun 26Musselburgh7fGd/Frm4thFast early39.8 -0.0397.3+0.00
8 Jun 26Carlisle5fGd/Sft7thTrue39.3 -0.1894.3-0.17
11 May 26Catterick Bridge7fGood11thFast early41.6 +0.0491.0+0.43
5 May 26Ayr7fGd/Frm3rdTrue39.6 -0.55101.8-0.51
8 Apr 26Catterick Bridge7fGood8thTrue41.0 -0.2097.5+0.17
Timed runs 2026-04-08 to 2026-07-08. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
9lb below his last winning mark (53 today vs 62)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #3 in this field (59.0)Improving fast — last run rated 59, 9pts above his recent average of 49.3Race-fit — ran 8 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“prominent, pushed along over 2f out, plugged on final 1f”
#4 FAIR ISLE SIOUX MID
DRAW 10 · OR 50 · Cam Hardie / Adam Nicol
MARKET 65
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−
56.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
56.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 56
Official mark (OR)
50 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 3 tries
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.1s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 96.49% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
5thClass 4 · 8.0f · rated 566thClass 4 · 7.8f · rated —5thClass 5 · 6.0f · rated 52
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Adam Nicol · 88 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
On turf5/4910.2%1.122/1020.0%2.74
In Class 6-7 company5/549.3%1.052/922.2%2.36
Coming back after 15 to 45 days4/3112.9%1.311/812.5%1.58
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 8-112/365.6%0.880/50.0%0.0
Too few runners to read reliably
At Thirsk (small sample)0/10.0%0.00/10.0%0.0
Over 7-8f trips (small sample)0/80.0%0.00/20.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)3/368.3%0.820/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 56 is below the ~59.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 10
+0.02 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 10
+0.18s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed9th of 10
96.5%
One-paced late
Stride length10th of 10
6.89 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
1 Jul 26Thirsk7fGd/Frm5thTrue39.8 -0.24105.6+0.01
8 Jun 26Carlisle7fGd/Sft6thTrue38.0 +0.3683.9+0.06
2 May 24Redcar5fSoft5thTrue38.5 -0.05100.0+0.48
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.23slow2f+0.34very slow3f+0.40very slow4f+0.34par5f+0.37fast6f+0.35fast7f+1.02par1m+2.06slow
Timed runs 2024-05-02 to 2026-07-01. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Drops in class todayOnly 3 runs at this distance
LTO comment
“handy, pushed along over 2f out, faded”
#5 FOREVER TWENTY HELD-UP
DRAW 2 · OR 52 · Alex Jary / Ivan Furtado
MARKET 30
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−
54.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
54.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 59
Official mark (OR)
52 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 8 tries
Days since last run
12
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 100.88% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 6 · 7.4f · rated 5410thClass 6 · 7.0f · rated 486thClass 6 · 7.0f · rated 523rdClass 6 · 7.0f · rated 597thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 54
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for FOREVER TWENTYneeds 59–61best 592026-02-11 · TFR 40 · 8.06f · Std · C52026-02-28 · TFR 53 · 7.06f · Std · C52026-03-14 · TFR 43 · 8.06f · Std · C32026-04-13 · TFR 54 · 6f · Std · C62026-05-02 · TFR 59 · 7.03f · Gd/Frm · C62026-05-18 · TFR 52 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C62026-06-14 · TFR 48 · 7.03f · Good · C62026-07-04 · TFR 54 · 7.44f · Gd/Frm · C611 Feb 264 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ivan Furtado · 946 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.4 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 8 to 14 days19/13314.3%1.440/460.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)22/19311.4%1.31/273.7%0.4
In Class 6-7 company37/28313.1%1.416/1135.3%0.54
On turf ✦23/2907.9%0.979/1316.9%0.8
Too few runners to read reliably
At Thirsk (small sample)0/130.0%0.00/60.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 61 at/around today's trip, clears the ~59.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 10
-0.01 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph10th of 10
+0.39s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 10
100.9%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length3rd of 10
7.37 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
4 Jul 26Beverley7fGd/Frm3rdTrue38.0 -0.1695.5+0.02
14 Jun 26Doncaster7fGood10thTrue40.1 -0.15101.2+0.38
18 May 26Redcar7fGd/Frm6thTrue40.4 +0.2399.2+0.98
2 May 26Doncaster7fGd/Frm3rdTrue39.8 +0.28106.2—
13 Apr 26Newcastle6fStd7thTrue40.4 -0.26100.6+0.27
14 Mar 26Southwell8fStd9thTrue39.0 -0.02102.6+0.32
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.18fast2f+0.13par3f+0.14par4f+0.26slow5f+0.16par6f+0.40par7f+0.65slow
Timed runs 2026-03-14 to 2026-07-04. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultRace-fit — ran 12 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“slowly away, mid-division, never dangerous”
#6 NIGHT EMPEROR (IRE) MID
DRAW 9 · OR 50 · Joanna Mason / Tina Jackson
MARKET 4.2
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−
53 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
53 · ranked #6 here · career best 62
Official mark (OR)
50 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 7 tries
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · best on the clock in its race
Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 97.38% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 504thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 566thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 538thClass 6 · 7.1f · rated —11thClass 4 · 6.0f · rated 48
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for NIGHT EMPEROR (IRE)best 62needs 59–612026-05-07 · TFR 53 · 5.99f · Good · C62026-05-28 · TFR 56 · 6f · Good · C62026-07-01 · TFR 50 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C67 May 261 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tina Jackson · 101 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)9/4520.0%1.391/520.0%1.65
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
On turf12/7715.6%1.291/147.1%0.62
Coming back after 15 to 45 days6/3318.2%1.31/1010.0%0.82
Too few runners to read reliably
At Thirsk (small sample)1/714.3%2.320/30.0%0.0
Over 7-8f trips (small sample)0/260.0%0.00/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 62 at/around today's trip, clears the ~59.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields6th of 10
-0.08 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 10
+0.24s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 10
97.4%
One-paced late
Stride length1st of 10
7.51 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
1 Jul 26Thirsk6fGd/Frm4thTrue41.8 -0.1497.9+0.15
28 May 26Ripon6fGood4thTrue41.6 -0.3795.9—
7 May 26Redcar5fGood6thTrue41.4 -0.1699.1+0.14
29 Oct 24Newcastle15fStandard / Slow7thTrue38.2 +0.0298.0+0.02
7 Oct 24Pontefract6fSoft6thTrue38.4 -0.2094.7+0.08
7 Sep 24Thirsk6fGd/Frm11thTrue41.3 +0.3898.8+0.79
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.44par2f+0.54par3f+0.72par4f+0.84par5f+0.97slow6f+0.60slow
Timed runs 2024-09-07 to 2026-07-01. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“off pace, headway 2f out, weakened final ½f”
#7 CROWN OF DREAMS PROMINENT
DRAW 7 · OR 52 · Silvestre De Sousa / Ivan Furtado
MARKET 34
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−
53.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
53.0 · ranked #7 here · career best 53
Official mark (OR)
52 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 3 tries
Days since last run
32
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.7s)
Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 98.07% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
10thClass 4 · 7.0f · rated 534thClass 4 · 7.4f · rated 266thClass 5 · 8.0f · rated 45
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for CROWN OF DREAMSneeds 59–61best 532026-04-20 · TFR 45 · 8.02f · Std · C52026-05-12 · TFR 26 · 7.44f · Gd/Frm · C42026-06-14 · TFR 53 · 7.03f · Good · C420 Apr 2614 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ivan Furtado · 946 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.4 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)22/19311.4%1.31/273.7%0.4
In Class 6-7 company37/28313.1%1.416/1135.3%0.54
On turf ✦23/2907.9%0.979/1316.9%0.8
Coming back after 15 to 45 days24/2988.1%1.0211/1666.6%0.85
Too few runners to read reliably
At Thirsk (small sample)0/130.0%0.00/60.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 50 is below the ~59.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields10th of 10
-0.40 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 39.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 10
+0.17s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 10
98.1%
One-paced late
Stride length7th of 10
7.25 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
14 Jun 26Doncaster7fGood10thSlow early39.1 -1.41106.3+0.38
12 May 26Beverley7fGd/Frm4thTrue39.2 -0.1489.2-0.01
20 Apr 26Newcastle8fStd6thTrue39.7 +0.3598.7+0.15
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.46par2f+0.54par3f+0.46very slow4f+0.34very slow5f+0.37slow6f+0.78par7f+1.71par
Timed runs 2026-04-20 to 2026-06-14. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Drops in class todayImproving fast — last run rated 53, 11pts above his recent average of 41.3Only 3 runs at this distanceLost roughly 1.7 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina question
LTO comment
“mid-field, left behind 2f out”
#8 MISEMERALD (IRE) MID
DRAW 1 · OR 46 · Clifford Lee / Philip Kirby
MARKET 12.5
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−
51.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
51.0 · ranked #8 here · career best 80
Official mark (OR)
46 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 26 tries · below market expectation (0.91)
Days since last run
12
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 99.01% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 6 · 7.8f · rated 512ndClass 6 · 7.0f · rated 516thClass 6 · 8.9f · rated 396thClass 6 · 8.0f · rated 5114thClass 5 · 8.0f · rated 28
Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for MISEMERALD (IRE)best 80needs 59–612025-04-23 · TFR 70 · 7.03f · Good · C52025-05-09 · TFR 70 · 8.34f · Good · C62025-05-27 · TFR 60 · 8f · Gd/Frm · C62025-06-16 · TFR 63 · 7.79f · Gd/Sft · C62025-07-02 · TFR 54 · 7f · Good · C52025-07-25 · TFR 43 · 7f · Good · C42025-08-11 · TFR 53 · 7.23f · Good · C62025-09-01 · TFR 55 · 7.79f · Good · C62025-09-14 · TFR 55 · 7.07f · Gd/Sft · C62025-09-30 · TFR 41 · 8.02f · Slow · C62026-03-29 · TFR 28 · 8f · Gd/Sft · C52026-04-20 · TFR 51 · 8.02f · Std · C62026-05-21 · TFR 39 · 8.95f · Good · C62026-06-22 · TFR 51 · 7.03f · Firm · C62026-07-04 · TFR 51 · 7.79f · Good · C623 Apr 254 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Philip Kirby · 577 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.1 on the exchange
Signature angle: off a steady mark, at this time of year (Q2)
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)11/1676.6%0.942/1612.5%1.8
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 7-8f trips2/762.6%0.511/402.5%0.4
Coming back after 8 to 14 days10/9610.4%1.082/385.3%0.53
On turf ✦15/2296.6%0.923/744.1%0.57
In fields of 8-11 ✦16/2446.6%0.836/1025.9%0.67
In Class 6-7 company ✦21/2488.5%0.918/1127.1%0.77
Too few runners to read reliably
At Thirsk (small sample)1/234.3%0.50/50.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 80 at/around today's trip, clears the ~59.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 10
+0.14 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph8th of 10
+0.29s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 10
99.0%
One-paced late
Stride length6th of 10
7.26 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
4 Jul 26Carlisle7fGood3rd—37.4 +0.08102.2+0.26—
22 Jun 26Catterick Bridge7fFirm2ndTrue41.0 +0.0698.6+0.13
21 May 26Musselburgh8fGood6thTrue38.1 +0.04102.7+0.45
20 Apr 26Newcastle8fStd6thTrue39.5 +0.2197.9+0.28
29 Mar 26Doncaster8fGd/Sft14thFast early38.0 +0.4891.5+0.58
30 Sep 25Newcastle8fSlow6thSlow early38.3 -0.02101.2+0.04
Timed runs 2025-09-30 to 2026-07-04. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 12 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“prominent, under pressure 2f out, left behind by winner approaching final 1f”
#9 ELASHGAR (IRE) MID
DRAW 5 · OR 53 · William Pyle / Kevin & Lauren Frost
MARKET 70
46.7 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
46.7 · ranked #9 here · career best 60
Official mark (OR)
53 · last won off 53
Record at today's distance
1 win from 6 tries · beats market expectation (2.48)
Days since last run
24
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.5s)
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.78% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
6thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 3410thClass 6 · 6.1f · rated 482ndClass 6 · 5.1f · rated 581stClass 6 · 6.1f · rated 603rdClass 4 · 6.1f · rated 46
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for ELASHGAR (IRE)best 60needs 59–612025-08-20 · TFR 30 · 7f · Std · C42026-01-22 · TFR 46 · 6.07f · Std · C42026-02-02 · TFR 46 · 6.09f · Std · C42026-02-27 · TFR 60 · 6.09f · Std · C62026-03-07 · TFR 58 · 5.1f · Std · C62026-04-26 · TFR 48 · 6.08f · Good · C62026-06-22 · TFR 34 · 5.96f · Firm · C620 Aug 2522 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Kevin & Lauren Frost
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 63 at/around today's trip, clears the ~59.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields9th of 10
-0.24 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 39.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 10
+0.10s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 10
100.8%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length4th of 10
7.30 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
22 Jun 26Catterick Bridge5fFirm6thTrue39.2 -0.69102.2+0.08
26 Apr 26Nottingham6fGood10thTrue40.0 -0.0598.2+0.15
7 Mar 26Wolverhampton5fStd2ndTrue39.6 +0.01104.2+0.24
27 Feb 26Wolverhampton6fStd1stFast early41.0 -0.6497.8-0.08
2 Feb 26Wolverhampton6fStd3rdTrue39.7 +0.0699.6+0.00
22 Jan 26Southwell6fStd8thTrue38.6 -0.12102.7+0.23
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.39slow2f+0.50very slow3f+0.65slow4f+0.84par5f+0.73fast6f+1.44par
Timed runs 2026-01-22 to 2026-06-22. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“off pace, ridden entering straight, no impression”
#10 BREEZE STAR (IRE) MID
DRAW 8 · OR 46 · Rhys Elliott / Noel Wilson
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 6−
32.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
32.0 · ranked #10 here · career best 48
Official mark (OR)
46 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 4 tries
Days since last run
38
Sectional clock
Last time: 0.9s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races midfield and fades
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 97.02% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
7thClass 6 · 5.8f · rated 328thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 228thClass 6 · 5.0f · rated 296thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 278thClass 4 · 7.1f · rated 32
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for BREEZE STAR (IRE)needs 59–61best 482025-07-23 · TFR 48 · 5.01f · Good · C52025-08-08 · TFR 36 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C2 · off-trip2025-09-13 · TFR 32 · 7.07f · Gd/Sft · C42025-10-04 · TFR 27 · 6f · Slow · C62025-10-17 · TFR 29 · 5f · Good · C6 · off-trip2026-05-03 · TFR 22 · 6.03f · Good · C62026-06-08 · TFR 32 · 5.83f · Gd/Sft · C623 Jul 258 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Noel Wilson · 78 runs since 2024
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 6-7 company0/190.0%0.00/200.0%0.0
Over 7-8f trips0/210.0%0.00/130.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days0/220.0%0.00/110.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)0/210.0%0.00/50.0%0.0
On turf0/260.0%0.00/240.0%0.0
In fields of 8-110/270.0%0.00/250.0%0.0
Too few runners to read reliably
At Thirsk (small sample)0/30.0%0.0—
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 48 is below the ~59.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields7th of 10
-0.14 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 10
+0.13s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 10
97.0%
One-paced late
Stride length9th of 10
7.15 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
8 Jun 26Carlisle5fGd/Sft7thTrue37.4 -0.3199.5+0.14
3 May 26Hamilton Park6fGood8thTrue41.7 -0.0393.0+0.17
17 Oct 25Redcar5fGood8thTrue40.8 -0.27101.1+0.06
4 Oct 25Newcastle6fSlow6thTrue39.4 +0.0595.5+0.07
13 Sep 25Musselburgh7fGd/Sft8thFast early38.5 +0.2294.3+0.21
8 Aug 25Musselburgh5fGd/Frm5thTrue40.7 -0.5298.7+0.11
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.54slow2f+0.55very slow3f+0.63par4f+0.75fast5f+0.92par6f+1.28slow
Timed runs 2025-08-08 to 2026-06-08. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Only 4 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“waited with, ridden over 2f out, weakened over 1f out”