FORMLAB Race Report — Thirsk 14:28

FORMLAB RACING

THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT

Thirsk · 14:28

Class 5 · 7.99f · Good to Firm (Good in places)

GENERATED 2026-07-16 · 5 RUNNERS PROFILED

THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 32.9%winner in the projected 1–2–3 68.5%73 races · latest settled day: #1 10/24, top-3 18/24

The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW

SANDY CRAIC (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners at this course and distance typically spend 48.45% of their energy before the final 2f and sit around 3 at halfway, 0.29s off the lead. The measured order tops SANDY CRAIC (IRE) on 79, 14pts clear of HATAMOTO. SANDY CRAIC (IRE): the only measured early speed in the race, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f. The shape danger is LEELAWADEE — the strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.

MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE

The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3

1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 1

SANDY CRAIC (IRE)

OR 71 · Conor Whiteley / David O'Meara

79.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayThe top rating in this field (79.0)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultRace-fit — ran 12 days ago

2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 2

HATAMOTO

OR 58 · Jake Dickson / Tim Easterby

MARKET backed 3.85 → 1.96

65.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−Rated #2 in this field (65.0)Jockey goes well at this track (2.86x market expectation)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 5

LADY BRITAIN

OR 72 · Kyle McHugh / Ismail Mohammed & Jose Santos

MARKET backed 7.4 → 3.8

61 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD

Drops in class todayRated #3 in this field (61)Jockey goes well at this track (5.57x market expectation)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare result

The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY

1HATAMOTOnet +7figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 speed vs its fields, runs the dominant winning style here, FormLab watch flag − burns early and empties

2LEELAWADEEnet +4race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, yard positive in today’s setup − habitually slow away

3SANDY CRAIC (IRE)net +3figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), top-2 speed vs its fields, yard positive in today’s setup − burns early and empties, yard cold

EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD

Worth A Second Look

These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.

SCHEFFLER (IRE) FIGURE #5

Adrian Nicholls's runners on turf win 13.0% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.

Race ShapePACE × FINISH

one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.

What this course & distance favours

Won by front-runners 35% · prominent racers 29% (34 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Sharp, relatively short finish; suits horses already in position — poor for a horse needing time to organise. Winners’ energy signature: 48.45% spent early (band 47.75–49.05%, 44 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~3 at halfway, 0.29s off the lead). Only one confirmed early type — the likely leader can dictate, a real edge at a track this front/prominent-biased.

Where the pace is drawn · 5 runners · stalls 1–5

12345

Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.

If the ground changes

Should it turn softer: SANDY CRAIC (IRE) is 0/3 on softer ground · HATAMOTO is 0/3 on softer ground · LADY BRITAIN is 1/2 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).

RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup

LADY BRITAIN MID 50.2% 98.2 the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

SANDY CRAIC (IRE) PROMINENT 50.5% 97.3 the only measured early speed in the race, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f

SCHEFFLER (IRE) MID 49.5% 96.8 held up without the late gear (5th of 5 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

LEELAWADEE MID 49.3% 102.0 the strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it

HATAMOTO MID 50.6% 97.9 the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

The early fight · measured

Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.

SANDY CRAIC (IRE)PROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.14s off the field’s best

SANDY CRAIC (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.

The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER

#1 SANDY CRAIC (IRE) PROMINENT

DRAW 1 · OR 71 · Conor Whiteley / David O'Meara

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−

79.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

FormLab Figure

79.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 79

Official mark (OR)

71 · last won off 69

Record at today's distance

1 win from 8 tries · below market expectation (0.83)

Days since last run

12

Sectional clock

Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent-closer

Run style & finish

Prominent · finishing speed 97.29% (one-paced late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

2ndClass 5 · 8.5f · rated 791stClass 5 · 6.9f · rated 775thClass 5 · 7.1f · rated 655thClass 4 · 7.0f · rated 712ndClass 5 · 7.0f · rated 73

Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time

Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

David O'Meara · 2003 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.7 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At Thirsk20/7526.7%1.483/2114.3%1.31

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At this time of year (Q3)90/65213.8%1.042/513.9%0.3

Over 7-8f trips90/72812.4%1.0213/1926.8%0.7

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 78 at/around today's trip, clears the ~66.0 demand

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields2nd of 5

+0.19 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 40.5 raw

Break · 0-20mph1st of 5

+0.14s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed4th of 5

97.3%

One-paced late

Stride length1st of 5

7.36 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

4 Jul 26Beverley8fGd/Frm2ndFast early39.5 -0.1094.0+0.04

15 Jun 26Carlisle6fGood1stFast early38.0 -0.3098.0+0.33

5 Jun 26Musselburgh7fGood5thTrue40.1 -0.1198.8+0.42

23 May 26York7fGood5thTrue40.5 +0.2095.1-0.11

11 May 26Catterick Bridge7fGood2ndTrue41.9 +0.9496.9+0.03

25 Apr 26Southwell6fStd3rdTrue40.0 +0.49101.0—

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.28par2f+0.33par3f+0.63fast4f+0.68fast5f+0.66par6f+0.35slow7f+0.22slow1m+0.31slow

Timed runs 2026-04-25 to 2026-07-04. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayThe top rating in this field (79.0)Stable cold this week — 1 wins from 21 runsMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultRace-fit — ran 12 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“mid-field, had to wait for gap over 2f out, pushed along under 2f out, switched 1f out, ran on”

#2 HATAMOTO MID

DRAW 2 · OR 58 · Jake Dickson / Tim Easterby

MARKET backed 3.85 → 1.96

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−

65.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

FormLab Figure

65.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 65

Official mark (OR)

58 · last won off 56

Record at today's distance

1 win from 6 tries · below market expectation (0.64)

Days since last run

13

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade below par (-0.6s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 97.87% (one-paced late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

1stClass 6 · 8.5f · rated 652ndClass 6 · 8.0f · rated 657thClass 5 · 9.0f · rated 383rdClass 6 · 7.0f · rated 562ndClass 6 · 7.8f · rated 59

Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Tim Easterby · 2879 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.9 on the exchange

Signature angle: stepping up in class, off a steady mark, at 16+ odds, with their 4yo+s, off a TFR-RISING figure trend, in fields of 12-15

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At Thirsk10/2184.6%0.632/613.3%0.45

At this time of year (Q3) ✦94/10608.9%0.887/779.1%0.83

Coming back after 8 to 14 days ✦58/6568.8%0.8121/2159.8%0.85

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 66 at/around today's trip, clears the ~66.0 demand

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields1st of 5

+0.23 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 39.2 raw

Break · 0-20mph3rd of 5

+0.24s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed3rd of 5

97.9%

One-paced late

Stride length2nd of 5

7.20 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

3 Jul 26Beverley8fGd/Frm1st—40.4 +0.7298.3+0.05—

18 Jun 26Ripon8fGood2ndTrue41.1 +0.7797.2—

9 Jun 26Carlisle9fGd/Sft7th—35.4 +0.0895.8+0.23—

26 May 26Leicester7fFirm3rdTrue40.0 +0.00102.3+0.70

18 May 26Carlisle7fSoft2ndTrue35.1 +0.0295.0+0.18

8 Apr 26Catterick Bridge7fGood6thTrue39.5 -0.2498.6+0.05

Timed runs 2026-04-08 to 2026-07-03. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 5 todayRated #2 in this field (65.0)Improving fast — last run rated 65, 9pts above his recent average of 56.0Stable cold this week — 1 wins from 30 runsJockey goes well at this track (2.86x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“led, shaken up 2f out, headed 1f out, kept on gamely”

#3 LADY BRITAIN MID

DRAW 5 · OR 72 · Kyle McHugh / Ismail Mohammed & Jose Santos

MARKET backed 7.4 → 3.8

61 FORMLAB FIGURE

FormLab Figure

61 · ranked #3 here · career best 70

Official mark (OR)

72 · last won off 64

Record at today's distance

2 wins from 4 tries · beats market expectation (3.86)

Days since last run

308

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.8s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races prominent

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 98.17% (one-paced late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

16thClass 2 · 6.5f · rated 481stClass 6 · 7.4f · rated 701stClass 6 · 7.4f · rated 653rdClass 4 · 6.0f · rated 545thClass 5 · 7.0f · rated 52

Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Ismail Mohammed & Jose Santos

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 70 at/around today's trip, clears the ~66.0 demand

Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields3rd of 5

-0.05 mph

About the level of its fields · 38.5 raw

Break · 0-20mph5th of 5

+0.48s

Slow away in 3 of 5 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · closing speed2nd of 5

98.2%

One-paced late

Stride length3rd of 5

7.00 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

11 Sep 25Doncaster6fGood16thTrue40.5 +0.1394.8+0.37

30 Aug 25Beverley7fGood1stSlow early38.0 +0.57101.3+0.21

14 Aug 25Beverley7fGd/Frm1stFast early39.0 -0.4493.7+1.13

30 Jul 25Leicester6fGd/Frm3rdSlow early39.6 +0.0099.5+0.15

4 Jun 25Nottingham5fGd/Sft9thTrue40.0 -0.51101.5+0.52

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f— 2f+0.41very slow3f+0.43par4f+0.45par5f+0.68slow6f+1.46very slow7f+2.89very slow

Timed runs 2025-06-04 to 2025-09-11 · last timed run 308 days ago — the profile is out of date. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

8lb above his last winning mark (72 today vs 64)Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 5 todayDrops in class todayRated #3 in this field (61)Only 4 runs at this distanceJockey goes well at this track (5.57x market expectation)Lost roughly 1.7 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultReturns from 308 days offHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“mid-field, struggling 2f out”

#4 LEELAWADEE MID

DRAW 3 · OR 61 · Rhys Elliott / Michael Dods

MARKET backed 7 → 5.8

Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−

61.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

FormLab Figure

61.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 61

Official mark (OR)

61 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 2 tries

Days since last run

41

Sectional clock

Last time: 0.9s slower than par — the result flattered it · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 101.97% (holds late)

Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

4thClass 5 · 7.0f · rated 615thClass 4 · 6.0f · rated 617thClass 5 · 7.1f · rated 46

Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Michael Dods · 1238 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.2 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

Over 7-8f trips35/3579.8%0.9913/8714.9%1.63

In Class 4-5 company56/56010.0%0.9819/15012.7%1.26

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In fields of <=728/14918.8%1.134/439.3%0.67

At Thirsk13/11511.3%1.294/429.5%0.84

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 61 is below the ~66.0 the race demands

Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields5th of 5

-0.21 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 39.3 raw

Break · 0-20mph4th of 5

+0.32s

Slow away in 2 of 3 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · closing speed1st of 5

102.0%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length4th of 5

6.99 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

5 Jun 26Thirsk7fGood4thFast early38.4 -0.5599.9+0.00

22 May 26Pontefract6fGd/Sft5thTrue37.2 -0.10104.8+0.39

13 Apr 26Newcastle7fStd7thTrue40.2 +0.02101.2+0.57

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.63fast2f+0.98par3f+1.11fast4f+0.95par5f+0.78slow6f+0.89slow7f+0.73very slow

Timed runs 2026-04-13 to 2026-06-05. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Only 2 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina question

LTO comment

“off pace, pushed along early in straight, some late headway”

#5 SCHEFFLER (IRE) MID

DRAW 4 · OR 65 · Oliver Carmichael / Adrian Nicholls

MARKET backed 85 → 19

Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−

44.3 FORMLAB FIGURE

FormLab Figure

44.3 · ranked #5 here · career best 67

Official mark (OR)

65 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 3 tries

Days since last run

37

Sectional clock

Last time: 2.1s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races held-up (no impact) · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 96.81% (one-paced late)

Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

10thClass 5 · 9.0f · rated —9thClass 4 · 8.0f · rated 439thClass 5 · 6.1f · rated 233rdClass 5 · 7.0f · rated 67

Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Adrian Nicholls · 339 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.6 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

Over 7-8f trips2/583.4%0.422/1612.5%1.4

Coming back after 15 to 45 days12/1448.3%0.893/2213.6%1.23

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In Class 4-5 company15/1639.2%1.092/355.7%0.56

Too few runners to read reliably

At Thirsk (small sample)3/2910.3%1.160/40.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 70 at/around today's trip, clears the ~66.0 demand

Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields4th of 5

-0.14 mph

About the level of its fields · 38.4 raw

Break · 0-20mph2nd of 5

+0.19s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed5th of 5

96.8%

One-paced late

Stride length5th of 5

6.85 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

9 Jun 26Carlisle9fGd/Sft10th—35.2 -0.0488.7+0.32—

28 Apr 26Lingfield8fStd9thTrue38.4 -0.63103.7+0.10

17 Apr 26Wolverhampton6fSlow9thTrue40.0 +0.2698.0+0.16

Timed runs 2026-04-17 to 2026-06-09. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Only 3 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina question

LTO comment

“always behind”