THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 32.9%winner in the projected 1–2–3 68.5%73 races · latest settled day: #1 10/24, top-3 18/24
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Measured on their own past openings, SALAM DUBAWI should reach the front first — roughly 1.0 lengths faster to the 2f marker than the next early type. Winners at this course and distance typically spend 47.73% of their energy before the final 2f and sit around 2 at halfway, 0.2s off the lead. The measured order tops I'LL BE BACK (IRE) on 102, 6.3pts clear of ENGLISH OAK. I'LL BE BACK (IRE): concedes ~1.8L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f. The shape danger is SALAM DUBAWI — the quickest of today's early types, and spends more than winners here do — and holds on late.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 5
I'LL BE BACK (IRE)
OR 92 · Sam James / K. R. Burke
102.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−The top rating in this field (102.0)Stable in form this week — 5 wins from 23 runsRuns Front — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 2
ENGLISH OAK
OR 102 · Jack Nicholls / Hamad Al Jehani
MARKET drifting 5 → 5.7
95.7FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 2 todayRated #2 in this field (95.7)Proven over the trip (15 tries, beats market expectation at 1.28)Historically underestimated by the market
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 4
SALAM DUBAWI
OR 87 · Paul Mulrennan / Jim Goldie
MARKET backed 3.75 → 2.54
95.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 3+ / 4−Rated #3 in this field (95.0)Race-fit — ran 5 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 1 here)
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1NOELAN STAR (GER)net +7race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), top-2 speed vs its fields, sharp from the stalls, runs the dominant winning style here, yard positive in today’s setup, yard hot
2ENGLISH OAKnet +5figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, top-2 speed vs its fields, proven at trip
3SALAM DUBAWInet +5race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, quickest early type, runs the dominant winning style here − 5lb+ above last winning mark
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
contested early pace likely (4 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by front-runners 35% · prominent racers 29% (34 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Stiff, steep uphill finish — a real stamina test in the closing furlongs. Winners’ energy signature: 47.73% spent early (band 46.91–48.7%, 50 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~2 at halfway, 0.2s off the lead). Today 4 confirmed early types will contest the lead — at a track that rewards prominent racing a hot pace can compromise the pure front-runners, handing it to a prominent horse that sustains or a well-drawn closer.
Where the pace is drawn · 6 runners · stalls 1–6
123456
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–6).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: I'LL BE BACK (IRE) is 1/1 on softer ground · ENGLISH OAK is 1/1 on softer ground · SALAM DUBAWI is unraced on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
ENGLISH OAKMID49.8%100.0one-paced late — 4th of 6 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
RHOSCOLYNHELD-UP50.7%98.3held up without the late gear (5th of 6 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
SALAM DUBAWIPROMINENT49.6%102.8the quickest of today's early types, and spends more than winners here do — and holds on late
I'LL BE BACK (IRE)FRONT50.8%97.9concedes ~1.8L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f
MONARCH'S GOLDPROMINENT50.7%100.5concedes ~1.9L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late
NOELAN STAR (GER)PROMINENT49.7%100.4just behind the quickest early pair — presses, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
SALAM DUBAWIPROMINENTtypically ~2.6 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.15s off the field’s best
NOELAN STAR (GER)PROMINENTtypically ~1.6 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
I'LL BE BACK (IRE)FRONTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.11s off the field’s best
MONARCH'S GOLDPROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.15s off the field’s best
measured on their own past openings, SALAM DUBAWI should reach the front first — roughly 1.0 lengths faster to the 2f marker than the next early type · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1I'LL BE BACK (IRE)FRONT
DRAW 5 · OR 92 · Sam James / K. R. Burke
Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−
102.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
102.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 102
Official mark (OR)
92 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 1 tries · beats market expectation (4.4)
Days since last run
94
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.5s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races front-runner
Career sheet · last 18 months · 2 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
K. R. Burke · 1711 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.9 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 91 to 180 days8/3026.7%1.965/2321.7%1.3
Over 7-8f trips ✦95/50019.0%1.1832/15121.2%1.15
Too few runners to read reliably
At Hamilton Park (small sample)14/4928.6%1.41/119.1%0.43
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 97 at/around today's trip, clears the ~95.7 demand
Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields6th of 6
-0.17 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 38.3 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 6
+0.11s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 6
97.9%
One-paced late
Stride length2nd of 6
7.46 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-11-08 to 2026-04-13. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Figure OFF-CONTEXT (C4→C2) — earned under different conditionsYet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 2 todayThe top rating in this field (102.0)Improving fast — last run rated 102, 9pts above his recent average of 93.0Only 1 run at this distanceStable in form this week — 5 wins from 23 runsRuns Front — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“close up, led over 2f out, wandered over 1f out, bit in hand”
#2ENGLISH OAKMID
DRAW 2 · OR 102 · Jack Nicholls / Hamad Al Jehani
MARKET drifting 5 → 5.7
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−
95.7FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
95.7 · ranked #2 here · career best 114
Official mark (OR)
102 · last won off 99
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 15 tries · beats market expectation (1.28)
Days since last run
28
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.4s) Usually races midfield
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Hamad Al Jehani · 154 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 1-3 company ✦11/8013.8%1.057/4017.5%1.31
Over 7-8f trips4/458.9%0.74/2416.7%1.25
In fields of <=77/2231.8%1.392/728.6%1.24
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)9/5915.3%0.920/70.0%0.0
Above their last winning mark3/1618.8%1.232/238.7%0.59
Too few runners to read reliably
At Hamilton Park (small sample)—2/2100.0%2.16
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 114 at/around today's trip, clears the ~95.7 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 6
+0.27 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 41.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 6
+0.43s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 6
100.0%
One-paced late
Stride length1st of 6
7.53 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
18 Jun 26Ascot7fGd/Frm14thSlow early39.2 -0.48100.1+0.21
Timed runs 2025-05-10 to 2026-06-18. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (102 today vs 99)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 2 todayRated #2 in this field (95.7)Proven over the trip (15 tries, beats market expectation at 1.28)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“close up, under pressure over 2f out, weakened over 1f out”
#3SALAM DUBAWIPROMINENT
DRAW 4 · OR 87 · Paul Mulrennan / Jim Goldie
MARKET backed 3.75 → 2.54
Yard mixed — leans against · 3+ / 4−
95.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
95.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 95
Official mark (OR)
87 · last won off 81
Record at today's distance
1 win from 3 tries · beats market expectation (9.89)
Days since last run
5
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class Usually races prominent and weakens · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 102.8% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jim Goldie · 1452 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.9 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class, on turf, keeping the same jockey, in fields of 8-11, with a PRO claimer up
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of <=7 ✦43/23318.5%1.117/7622.4%1.21
Over 7-8f trips ✦41/28714.3%1.213/10412.5%1.2
At Hamilton Park ✦29/18615.6%1.3510/6515.4%1.16
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after within 7 days40/17822.5%1.326/5610.7%0.64
At this time of year (Q3)70/41816.7%1.35/588.6%0.65
In Class 1-3 company18/1939.3%1.223/575.3%0.71
Above their last winning mark96/45321.2%1.4317/15910.7%0.79
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 95 is below the ~95.7 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 6
-0.10 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 6
+0.15s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 6
102.8%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length6th of 6
7.22 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
11 Jul 26York10fGd/Frm3rd—40.2 +1.27100.7+0.25—
5 Jul 26Ayr8fGood3rdTrue40.3 +0.12106.3+0.00
25 May 26Redcar10fGd/Frm10thTrue40.4 -1.44103.9+0.01
15 May 26Hamilton Park9fGood1stTrue38.8 -1.09101.4+0.15
Timed runs 2026-04-26 to 2026-07-11. · finishing speed for 3 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
6lb above his last winning mark (87 today vs 81)Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 2 todayRated #3 in this field (95.0)Improving fast — last run rated 95, 8pts above his recent average of 86.7Only 3 runs at this distanceStable cold this week — 1 wins from 25 runsRace-fit — ran 5 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 1 here)Runs Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“prominent, under pressure 3f out, dropped away under 2f out”
#4RHOSCOLYNHELD-UP
DRAW 1 · OR 92 · Daniel Tudhope / David O'Meara
MARKET drifting 16.5 → 19
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−
87FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
87 · ranked #4 here · career best 108
Official mark (OR)
92 · last won off 96
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 34 tries · beats market expectation (1.62)
Days since last run
41
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.6s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races held-up closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 98.33% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
David O'Meara · 2003 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.7 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)90/65213.8%1.042/513.9%0.3
In Class 1-3 company ✦41/5167.9%0.917/1405.0%0.56
Coming back after 15 to 45 days107/79313.5%1.1116/2137.5%0.69
Over 7-8f trips90/72812.4%1.0213/1926.8%0.7
At Hamilton Park9/6314.3%0.882/2010.0%0.75
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 108 at/around today's trip, clears the ~95.7 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 6
+0.08 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 6
+0.31s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 6
98.3%
One-paced late
Stride length3rd of 6
7.44 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
5 Jun 26Epsom Downs7fGd/Sft11thFast early41.6 +0.9994.7+0.32
2 May 26Thirsk7fGd/Frm11thTrue39.7 -0.21103.3+0.44
Timed runs 2025-09-24 to 2026-06-05. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
4lb below his last winning mark (92 today vs 96)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 2 todayProven over the trip (34 tries, beats market expectation at 1.62)Stable cold this week — 1 wins from 21 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“mid-field, headway when badly hampered over 2f out, not recover”
#5NOELAN STAR (GER)PROMINENT
DRAW 6 · OR 90 · Connor Beasley / Edward Bethell
Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−
84.3FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
84.3 · ranked #5 here · career best 94
Official mark (OR)
90 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 4 tries · beats market expectation (1.61)
Days since last run
28
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.6s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Edward Bethell · 851 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.1 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)39/25315.4%0.959/3426.5%1.59
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of <=7 ✦31/15420.1%0.8311/7714.3%0.72
Too few runners to read reliably
At Hamilton Park (small sample)5/2718.5%0.834/1136.4%1.4
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 94 is below the ~95.7 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 6
+0.23 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 6
+0.03s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 6
100.4%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length5th of 6
7.34 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
18 Jun 26Ascot8fGd/Frm26thTrue38.7 -0.1895.9—
2 May 26Doncaster8fGd/Frm3rdTrue39.4 -0.03102.2+0.00
Timed runs 2025-12-13 to 2026-06-18. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 2 todayOnly 4 runs at this distanceStable in form this week — 5 wins from 19 runsRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“mid-division, pushed along approaching 2f out, hung right, left behind”
#6MONARCH'S GOLDPROMINENT
DRAW 3 · OR 92 · David Egan / Kevin Philippart de Foy
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 2−
73.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
73.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 98
Official mark (OR)
92 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 2 tries
Days since last run
41
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.1s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races midfield-closer
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Kevin Philippart de Foy · 651 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 7-8f trips ✦22/20610.7%0.944/449.1%0.65
In Class 1-3 company10/1039.7%1.246/708.6%0.71
Too few runners to read reliably
At Hamilton Park (small sample)0/30.0%0.01/250.0%1.56
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 100 at/around today's trip, clears the ~95.7 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 6
+0.04 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 6
+0.15s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 6
100.5%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length4th of 6
7.34 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
5 Jun 26Epsom Downs7fGd/Sft9thFast early40.6 -0.0495.4+0.30
7 May 26Chester7fGood2ndTrue39.7 -0.3299.4+0.12
3 Apr 26Newcastle6fStd13thTrue41.0 -0.6890.5+0.13
13 Mar 26Southwell6fStd2ndTrue40.5 -0.02105.4+0.08
16 Jan 26Newcastle6fStd5thTrue41.1 +0.0899.8+0.21
24 Oct 25Southwell6fStd1stSlow early41.5 +1.25112.4+0.09
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-10-24 to 2026-06-05. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 2 todayOnly 2 runs at this distanceMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“prominent, ridden soon after halfway, badly hampered over 2f out, no chance after”