FORMLAB Race Report — Epsom Downs 19:30

FORMLAB RACING

THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT

Epsom Downs · 19:30

Class 4 · 12.03f · Good to Firm

GENERATED 2026-07-16 · 8 RUNNERS PROFILED

THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 32.9%winner in the projected 1–2–3 68.5%73 races · latest settled day: #1 10/24, top-3 18/24

The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW

Even/unclear early shape. Winners at this course and distance typically spend 47.28% of their energy before the final 2f and sit around 3 at halfway, 0.42s off the lead. The measured order tops DAMASCUS STEEL (IRE) on 81, 4pts clear of NAVAL COMMAND and EPICTETUS (IRE) (both 77). DAMASCUS STEEL (IRE): the strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it. The shape danger is PRIDE OF NEPAL — a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.

MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE

The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3

1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 8

DAMASCUS STEEL (IRE)

OR 75 · Miss Becky Smith / Gihan Arnolda

MARKET backed 5.6 → 4.4

81.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD

Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (81.0)Proven over the trip (30 tries, beats market expectation at 1.53)Historically underestimated by the market

2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 4

NAVAL COMMAND

OR 78 · Miss Georgie Benson / Ralph Beckett

MARKET 7.6

77 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD

Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−Rated #2 in this field (77)Stable in form this week — 9 wins from 26 runs

3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 7

EPICTETUS (IRE)

OR 77 · Miss Megan Jordan / Jamie Osborne

MARKET 8.8

77.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD

Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−Proven at this level — a Class 1 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #3 in this field (77.0)Jockey goes well at this track (3.51x market expectation)A course winner (1 from 2 here)

The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY

1DAMASCUS STEEL (IRE)net +9figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, proven at trip

2NAVAL COMMANDnet +5figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, yard hot, FormLab watch flag

3PRIDE OF NEPALnet +4race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, proven at trip, proven on the going, yard positive in today’s setup − figure earned on another surface, habitually slow away, 5lb+ above last winning mark

EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD

Worth A Second Look

These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.

PRIDE OF NEPAL FIGURE #4

Tony Carroll's runners in Class 4-5 company win 13.7% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Tony Carroll's runners stepping up in class win 17.3% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.

Race ShapePACE × FINISH

even/unclear early shape (no confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.

What this course & distance favours

Won by front-runners 41% · prominent racers 32% (22 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Deceptive — long downhill run then a genuine uphill kick in the final ~100y; balance and a stride change required finish. Winners’ energy signature: 47.28% spent early (band 46.37–48.1%, 32 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~3 at halfway, 0.42s off the lead). No confirmed early type — the likely leader can dictate, a real edge at a track this front/prominent-biased.

Where the pace is drawn · 8 runners · stalls 1–8

12345678

Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.

If the ground changes

Should it turn softer: DAMASCUS STEEL (IRE) is 1/4 on softer ground · NAVAL COMMAND is 0/2 on softer ground · EPICTETUS (IRE) is 2/8 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).

RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup

CARNIVAL DAY (IRE) MID 50.9% 99.9 one-paced late — 8th of 8 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

NAVAL COMMAND MID 48.4% 102.3 solid late gains (6th of 8 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it

EPICTETUS (IRE) HELD-UP 47.8% 104.5 a genuine turn of foot — 5th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it

DAMASCUS STEEL (IRE) HELD-UP 48.4% 107.8 the strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it

PRIDE OF NEPAL HELD-UP 48.3% 107.2 a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it

I'D GO MANIAC (FR) HELD-UP 49.5% 101.3 solid late gains (7th of 8 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it

SHAHBAZ (IRE) HELD-UP 48.0% 106.2 a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it

JODHPUR BLUE (FR) MID 48.1% 105.6 a genuine turn of foot — 4th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it

The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER

#1 DAMASCUS STEEL (IRE) HELD-UP

DRAW 8 · OR 75 · Miss Becky Smith / Gihan Arnolda

MARKET backed 5.6 → 4.4

81.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

FormLab Figure

81.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 81

Official mark (OR)

75 · last won off 72

Record at today's distance

6 wins from 30 tries · beats market expectation (1.53)

Days since last run

27

Sectional clock

Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield-closer

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 107.75% (strong late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

1stClass 4 · 12.0f · rated 816thClass 4 · 12.0f · rated 755thClass 4 · 12.0f · rated 783rdClass 5 · 12.0f · rated 782ndClass 4 · 12.2f · rated 78

Career sheet · last 18 months · 19 rated runs · spacing is real time

Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Gihan Arnolda

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 81 at/around today's trip, clears the ~78.0 demand

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields2nd of 8

+0.49 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 39.5 raw

Break · 0-20mph5th of 8

+0.26s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed1st of 8

107.8%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length1st of 8

7.56 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

19 Jun 26Goodwood11fGood1st—38.9 +0.73107.6+0.16

31 May 26Thirsk12fGood6thTrue39.5 +0.52106.2+0.41

3 Apr 26Lingfield12fStd5thTrue39.7 -0.50105.8+0.60

28 Feb 26Lingfield12fStd3rdTrue39.5 +0.40107.2+0.00

30 Jan 26Wolverhampton12fStd2ndTrue37.8 +1.09103.8+0.24

10 Jan 26Lingfield12fStd1stTrue40.8 +0.70116.0+0.13

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.64 2f+0.94 3f+1.51 4f+1.35 5f+1.59 6f+2.20 7f+1.79 1m+0.78 1m 1f+0.39 1m 2f+0.32 1m 3fled 1m 4fled

Timed runs 2026-01-10 to 2026-06-19. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

3lb above his last winning mark (75 today vs 72)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (81.0)Proven over the trip (30 tries, beats market expectation at 1.53)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market

LTO comment

“held up, headway to lead over 1f out, closed down late on, driven out”

#2 NAVAL COMMAND MID FORMLAB WATCH

DRAW 4 · OR 78 · Miss Georgie Benson / Ralph Beckett

MARKET 7.6

Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−

77 FORMLAB FIGURE

FormLab Figure

77 · ranked #2 here · career best 86

Official mark (OR)

78 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 2 tries

Days since last run

17

Sectional clock

Last time: 0.8s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races prominent · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 102.27% (holds late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

9thClass 4 · 11.0f · rated 655thClass 3 · 10.3f · rated 866thClass 4 · 11.4f · rated 802ndClass 4 · 8.0f · rated 844thClass 5 · 10.0f · rated 79

Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Ralph Beckett · 1368 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.5 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At this time of year (Q3)90/46719.3%0.9814/4630.4%1.48

In Class 4-5 company118/54321.7%0.9431/11726.5%1.15

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

Over 11f+ trips51/24221.1%1.067/749.5%0.51

Too few runners to read reliably

At Epsom Downs (small sample)6/3417.6%0.962/1414.3%0.91

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 86 at/around today's trip, clears the ~78.0 demand

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields5th of 8

+0.18 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 38.7 raw

Break · 0-20mph4th of 8

+0.26s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed6th of 8

102.3%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length2nd of 8

7.30 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

29 Jun 26Kempton Park10fSlow9th—38.0 +0.12100.0+0.62—

13 Jun 26Chester10fGd/Sft5thTrue38.7 +0.0999.1+0.20

18 May 26Windsor11fGood6thTrue39.1 -0.31105.0+0.19

21 Jun 25Newmarket8fGd/Frm2ndTrue39.1 +0.7298.4+0.00

26 Apr 25Leicester10fGd/Frm4thTrue38.9 +0.23106.0+0.00

14 Oct 24Kempton Park8fStandard / Slow4thTrue38.5 +0.20105.0+0.54

Timed runs 2024-10-14 to 2026-06-29. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Rated #2 in this field (77)Only 2 runs at this distanceStable in form this week — 9 wins from 26 runsLost roughly 2.8 lengths at the start last timeCut 3lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance

LTO comment

“slowly away, off pace, progress wide from 3f out, kept on inside final 1f”

#3 EPICTETUS (IRE) HELD-UP

DRAW 7 · OR 77 · Miss Megan Jordan / Jamie Osborne

MARKET 8.8

Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−

77.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

FormLab Figure

77.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 112

Official mark (OR)

77 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 1 tries

Days since last run

13

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.7s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races held-up closer

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 104.52% (strong late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

5thClass 4 · 8.0f · rated 7717thClass 4 · 10.3f · rated 263rdClass 4 · 9.0f · rated 873rdClass 4 · 12.0f · rated 872ndClass 4 · 9.5f · rated 87

Career sheet · last 18 months · 21 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Jamie Osborne · 775 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.7 on the exchange

Signature angle: over an unchanged trip, with the mark MARK-FLAT

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At this time of year (Q3)27/22412.1%1.343/1717.6%1.4

In fields of 8-11 ✦36/32311.1%1.179/7911.4%1.32

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

Over 11f+ trips10/9510.5%0.941/214.8%0.64

Too few runners to read reliably

At Epsom Downs (small sample)1/911.1%0.950/20.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 112 at/around today's trip, clears the ~78.0 demand

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields3rd of 8

+0.27 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 40.7 raw

Break · 0-20mph2nd of 8

+0.22s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed5th of 8

104.5%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length3rd of 8

7.17 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

3 Jul 26Sandown Park8fGood5thFast early39.1 -0.2792.3+0.28

12 Jun 26York10fGood17thTrue39.3 -0.0898.6+0.43

30 May 26Lingfield9fGd/Frm3rdTrue40.4 +0.54108.9+0.46

12 May 26Lingfield12fStd3rdTrue40.7 +0.61113.3+0.15

27 Apr 26Wolverhampton9fStd2ndFast early38.5 +0.00102.0+0.02

14 Apr 26Lingfield8fStd2ndSlow early41.8 +0.79112.1+0.00

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+1.09slow2f+1.23fast3f+1.25very fast4f+0.88very fast5f+0.70slow6f+0.42par7f+0.45very slow1m+1.11very slow

Timed runs 2026-04-14 to 2026-07-03. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Proven at this level — a Class 1 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #3 in this field (77.0)Only 1 run at this distanceJockey goes well at this track (3.51x market expectation)Historically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 2 here)

LTO comment

“rear, headway over 2f out, plugged on, never on terms”

#4 PRIDE OF NEPAL HELD-UP

DRAW 2 · OR 70 · Miss Sarah Bowen / Tony Carroll

MARKET drifting 8.2 → 13.5

Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−

77.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

FormLab Figure

77.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 77

Official mark (OR)

70 · last won off 64

Record at today's distance

2 wins from 13 tries · beats market expectation (1.59)

Days since last run

28

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.6s) · best on the clock in its race
Usually races prominent-closer

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 107.25% (strong late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

1stClass 6 · 12.0f · rated 771stClass 6 · 10.0f · rated 701stClass 6 · 10.0f · rated 691stClass 6 · 10.0f · rated 667thClass 6 · 14.0f · rated 45

Career sheet · last 18 months · 21 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Tony Carroll · 2379 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange

Signature angle: at Bath, above their last winning mark, at this time of year (Q2), on turf, off a TFR-FALLING figure trend, with the mark MARK-FLAT, with a CLAIM-7 claimer up

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

On turf ✦97/70713.7%1.245/22320.2%1.42

Over 11f+ trips ✦33/25512.9%1.1612/8614.0%1.25

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At this time of year (Q3) ✦51/49310.3%0.954/449.1%0.72

Too few runners to read reliably

At Epsom Downs (small sample)1/911.1%1.270/40.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 77 is below the ~78.0 the race demands

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields1st of 8

+0.85 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 37.5 raw

Break · 0-20mph7th of 8

+0.50s

Slow away in 4 of 5 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · closing speed2nd of 8

107.2%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length7th of 8

6.90 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

18 Jun 26Ripon12fGood1stTrue38.4 +0.75105.2—

15 Jun 26Chepstow10fGood1stTrue40.9 +1.06114.5+0.44

30 May 26Lingfield10fGd/Frm1stTrue40.7 +1.99109.4+0.27

23 May 26Windsor10fGd/Frm1st—40.6 +1.22108.5+0.46

17 Feb 26Wolverhampton13fStd7thTrue37.0 -0.41105.8+0.64

2 Feb 26Wolverhampton12fStd6thFast early37.3 +0.51100.2+0.67

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+1.17very slow2f+1.51par3f+1.66fast4f+1.87par5f+1.84par6f+1.80par7f+1.45par1m+1.03fast1m 1f+0.93par1m 2f+0.42fast1m 3f+0.02par1m 4fledpar

Timed runs 2026-02-02 to 2026-06-18. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Figure OFF-CONTEXT (C6→C4) — earned under different conditions6lb above his last winning mark (70 today vs 64)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayProven over the trip (13 tries, beats market expectation at 1.59)Lost roughly 2.0 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market

LTO comment

“steadied start, rear, still off pace over 3f out, headway 2f out, led inside final 1f, pushed out”

#5 CARNIVAL DAY (IRE) MID

DRAW 5 · OR 78 · Miss Amy Collier / Jim Boyle

MARKET 3.3

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 6−

76 FORMLAB FIGURE

FormLab Figure

76 · ranked #5 here · career best 87 · earned over 9.9/8.5/8.2f — but has run to 83 at today's distance, proven here (rating understates him)

Official mark (OR)

78 · last won off 75

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 7 tries

Days since last run

34

Sectional clock

Last time: 3.4s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races prominent

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 99.86% (one-paced late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

7thClass 3 · 9.9f · rated 743rdClass 4 · 8.5f · rated 874thClass 4 · 8.2f · rated 672ndClass 3 · 10.1f · rated 836thClass 4 · 9.9f · rated 64

Career sheet · last 18 months · 12 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Jim Boyle · 457 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.3 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At Epsom Downs3/575.3%0.660/110.0%0.0

Above their last winning mark11/10110.9%0.762/385.3%0.43

On turf23/2489.3%0.873/605.0%0.64

Over 11f+ trips9/7811.5%0.962/248.3%0.65

In fields of 8-11 ✦11/1885.9%0.614/596.8%0.67

Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦12/1697.1%0.684/488.3%0.77

Can it do what today needs? Proven at the trip — has run to 83 at today's distance, clears the ~78.0 demand (career best 88 came off-trip)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields4th of 8

+0.20 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 38.2 raw

Break · 0-20mph3rd of 8

+0.23s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed8th of 8

99.9%

One-paced late

Stride length6th of 8

7.01 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

12 Jun 26Sandown Park9fGood7thFast early38.0 +0.1794.9+0.21

28 Apr 26Epsom Downs8fGood3rdTrue41.3 +0.26106.7+0.25

28 Oct 25Leicester8fSoft4thFast early37.8 +0.3493.3+0.51

28 Sep 25Epsom Downs10fGood2ndTrue39.5 +0.28108.5+0.17

12 Sep 25Sandown Park9fHeavy6thTrue35.6 +0.0994.0+0.25

29 Aug 25Sandown Park9fSoft4thTrue36.8 +0.05101.7+0.00

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.28par2f+0.54par3f+0.60very fast4f+0.91fast5f+1.26fast6f+1.63fast7f+1.46par1m+0.99slow1m 1f+0.81very slow1m 2f+1.58very slow

Timed runs 2025-08-29 to 2026-06-12. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

3lb above his last winning mark (78 today vs 75)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayRating earned over 9.9/8.5/8.2f, but he has run to 83 at today's distance — proven at this trip (his rating understates him here)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 5 here)Sectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance

LTO comment

“waited with, shaken up 3f out, hung right, carried head bit awkwardly, weakened over 1f out”

#6 I'D GO MANIAC (FR) HELD-UP

DRAW 6 · OR 69 · Miss Georgia King / Alan King

Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−

73 FORMLAB FIGURE

FormLab Figure

73 · ranked #6 here · career best 76

Official mark (OR)

69 · last won off 72

Record at today's distance

1 win from 6 tries · beats market expectation (2.72)

Days since last run

48

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.3s slower than par — the result flattered it · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 101.35% (holds late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

4thClass 5 · 12.2f · rated 722ndClass 5 · 10.0f · rated 765thClass 5 · 12.0f · rated 718thClass 5 · 16.0f · rated 224thClass 5 · 12.2f · rated 67

Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Alan King · 360 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

Over 11f+ trips ✦20/14913.4%1.099/3823.7%1.66

On turf ✦25/18313.7%1.198/4517.8%1.34

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At this time of year (Q3)15/10614.2%1.220/70.0%0.0

In fields of 8-1122/13216.7%1.433/329.4%0.76

Too few runners to read reliably

Coming back after 46 to 90 days (small sample)5/3016.7%2.290/60.0%0.0

Below their last winning mark (small sample)—0/20.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 78 at/around today's trip, clears the ~78.0 demand

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields7th of 8

+0.04 mph

About the level of its fields · 38.1 raw

Break · 0-20mph6th of 8

+0.32s

Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · closing speed7th of 8

101.3%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length5th of 8

7.04 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

29 May 26Wolverhampton12fStd4th—37.3 +0.23104.6+0.36

11 May 26Windsor10fGd/Frm2ndTrue38.8 +0.65104.4+0.35

21 Jan 26Kempton Park15fSlow8thTrue36.0 -1.0793.0+0.40

20 Dec 25Wolverhampton12fSlow4thTrue37.1 -0.0999.8+0.18

25 Nov 25Wolverhampton12fSlow1stTrue40.0 +0.60110.4+0.36

3 Oct 25Ascot11fGood6thTrue37.8 -0.0895.9+0.24

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.71 2f+0.82 3f+0.82 4f+0.65 5f+0.67 6f+0.71 7f+0.74 1m+0.77 1m 1f+1.13 1m 2f+1.28 1m 3f+1.05 1m 4f+0.96

Timed runs 2025-10-03 to 2026-05-29. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

3lb below his last winning mark (69 today vs 72)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayLost roughly 1.6 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market

LTO comment

“mid-field, outpaced 3f out, lost place 2f out, headway on inner final 1f, kept on”

#7 SHAHBAZ (IRE) HELD-UP

DRAW 1 · OR 64 · Miss Brodie Hampson / Archie Watson

MARKET drifting 10 → 14.5

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 1−

67.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

FormLab Figure

67.0 · ranked #7 here · career best 91

Official mark (OR)

64 · last won off 71

Record at today's distance

1 win from 13 tries · below market expectation (0.57)

Days since last run

152

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.3s slower than par — the result flattered it · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races held-up closer

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 106.21% (strong late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

4thClass 5 · 12.0f · rated 672ndClass 6 · 12.2f · rated 718thClass 5 · 11.1f · rated 6110thClass 4 · 10.0f · rated 579thClass 4 · 9.5f · rated 51

Career sheet · last 18 months · 17 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Archie Watson · 1272 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.7 on the exchange

Signature angle: in fields of <=7

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In fields of 8-11 ✦55/51710.6%0.986/1145.3%0.49

Too few runners to read reliably

Coming back after 91 to 180 days (small sample)6/3119.4%1.473/1225.0%2.93

At Epsom Downs (small sample)3/1127.3%2.780/30.0%0.0

Below their last winning mark (small sample)8/2630.8%3.060/160.0%0.0

At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)35/30011.7%0.960/190.0%0.0

Over 11f+ trips (small sample)14/12111.6%1.041/137.7%0.72

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 91 at/around today's trip, clears the ~78.0 demand

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields6th of 8

+0.09 mph

About the level of its fields · 37.5 raw

Break · 0-20mph8th of 8

+0.51s

Slow away in 5 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · closing speed3rd of 8

106.2%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length8th of 8

6.87 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

14 Feb 26Lingfield12fStd4thFast early38.0 +0.26102.5+0.46

2 Feb 26Wolverhampton12fStd2ndFast early37.0 +0.25102.8+0.14

3 Jan 26Southwell11fStd8thSlow early39.6 +0.48113.5+0.45

22 Dec 25Lingfield10fStd/Slow10thTrue40.4 -0.42110.5+0.46

13 Dec 25Wolverhampton9fSlow9thTrue37.9 -0.07102.5+0.64

3 Dec 25Kempton Park10fStd10thTrue38.6 +0.01105.5+0.88

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.44fast2f+0.60slow3f+0.66par4f+0.56fast5f+0.47fast6f+0.44fast7f+0.53fast1m+0.45fast1m 1f+0.33slow1m 2f+0.42very slow1m 3f+0.42very slow1m 4f+0.32very slow

Timed runs 2025-12-03 to 2026-02-14 · last timed run 152 days ago — the profile is out of date. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

7lb below his last winning mark (64 today vs 71)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayJockey goes well at this track (3.45x market expectation)Lost roughly 2.1 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price

LTO comment

“steadied start, headway on inner entering straight, chased leaders over 1f out, one paced”

#8 JODHPUR BLUE (FR) MID

DRAW 3 · OR 62 · Miss Amy Milburn / Ian Williams

64 FORMLAB FIGURE

FormLab Figure

64 · ranked #8 here · career best 78

Official mark (OR)

62 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 3 tries

Days since last run

20

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade below par (-0.6s)
Usually races prominent

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 105.59% (strong late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

2ndClass 5 · 10.0f · rated 626thClass 5 · 15.8f · rated 522ndClass 5 · 11.0f · rated 782ndClass 5 · 10.0f · rated 753rdClass 4 · 12.2f · rated 73

Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Christian Williams

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 81 at/around today's trip, clears the ~78.0 demand

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields8th of 8

-0.02 mph

About the level of its fields · 36.8 raw

Break · 0-20mph1st of 8

+0.20s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed4th of 8

105.6%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length4th of 8

7.10 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

26 Jun 26Newmarket10fGd/Frm2ndTrue39.7 +0.0098.3+0.00

20 Mar 26Lingfield15fStd6thTrue37.3 -0.17100.7+0.21

4 Mar 26Kempton Park10fSlow2ndTrue39.7 -0.19108.9+0.12

30 Jan 26Wolverhampton12fStd3rdTrue36.8 +0.07102.9+0.24

20 Jan 26Southwell11fStd2ndTrue39.1 +0.19112.4+0.03

5 Dec 25Newcastle10fStd/Slow4thTrue39.2 -0.03110.3+0.40

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.26slow2f+0.21slow3f+0.27slow4f+0.22fast5f+0.22very fast6f+0.26very fast7f+0.28very fast1m+0.22par1m 1f+0.39very slow1m 2f+1.43very slow

Timed runs 2025-12-05 to 2026-06-26. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Only 3 runs at this distanceStable in form this week — 2 wins from 17 runsNEARLY WON LTO — traded 2.0 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Historically over-bet by the market — take care with the price

LTO comment

“held up, ridden over 2f out, soon beaten”