FORMLAB Race Report — Epsom Downs 18:55

FORMLAB RACING

THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT

Epsom Downs · 18:55

Class 5 · 10.08f · Good to Firm

GENERATED 2026-07-16 · 5 RUNNERS PROFILED

THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 32.9%winner in the projected 1–2–3 68.5%73 races · latest settled day: #1 10/24, top-3 18/24

The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW

Even/unclear early shape. Winners at this course and distance typically spend 46.89% of their energy before the final 2f and sit around 2.5 at halfway, 0.23s off the lead. The measured order tops TIGER (FR) on 83, 1pts clear of BOOZIEBRUNCH (IRE). TIGER (FR): solid late gains (5th of 5 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it. The shape danger is HELLO COTAI (IRE) — the strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.

MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE

The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3

1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 5

TIGER (FR)

OR 75 · Edward Greatrex / Ian Williams

83.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD

The top rating in this field (83.0)Stable in form this week — 2 wins from 17 runsJockey goes well at this track (4.06x market expectation)Runs Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 2

BOOZIEBRUNCH (IRE)

OR 75 · Tom Marquand / S. P. C. Woods

MARKET backed 6.2 → 4.8

82.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #2 in this field (82.0)

3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 4

PERFECT SCOUNDREL

OR 71 · Robert Havlin / Amanda Perrett

MARKET backed 4.5 → 2.74

78.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 7−Rated #3 in this field (78.0)Jockey goes well at this track (2.53x market expectation)

The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY

1SHOW BIZ KID (IRE)net +8drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, proven at trip, proven on the going − 5lb+ above last winning mark

2HELLO COTAI (IRE)net +8race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, runs the dominant winning style here, proven on the going

3BOOZIEBRUNCH (IRE)net +5figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, proven on the going, FormLab watch flag − yard cold, 5lb+ above last winning mark

EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD

Worth A Second Look

These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.

SHOW BIZ KID (IRE) FIGURE #4

drops in class and returns quickly — the two angles our testing shows genuinely tighten a profile.

Race ShapePACE × FINISH

even/unclear early shape (no confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.

What this course & distance favours

Won by prominent racers 33% · front-runners 29% (21 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Deceptive — long downhill run then a genuine uphill kick in the final ~100y; balance and a stride change required finish. Winners’ energy signature: 46.89% spent early (band 46.43–47.29%, 30 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~2.5 at halfway, 0.23s off the lead). No confirmed early type — the likely leader can dictate, a real edge at a track this front/prominent-biased.

Where the pace is drawn · 5 runners · stalls 1–5

12345

Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.

If the ground changes

Should it turn softer: TIGER (FR) is 0/3 on softer ground · BOOZIEBRUNCH (IRE) is 0/2 on softer ground · PERFECT SCOUNDREL is 0/3 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).

RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup

TIGER (FR) HELD-UP 49.4% 101.1 solid late gains (5th of 5 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it

SHOW BIZ KID (IRE) MID 49.3% 102.6 the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it

PERFECT SCOUNDREL MID 50.3% 102.2 the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it

HELLO COTAI (IRE) MID 49.0% 106.1 the strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it

BOOZIEBRUNCH (IRE) MID 49.5% 101.6 solid late gains (4th of 5 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it

The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER

#1 TIGER (FR) HELD-UP

DRAW 5 · OR 75 · Edward Greatrex / Ian Williams

83.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

FormLab Figure

83.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 83

Official mark (OR)

75 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 2 tries

Days since last run

32

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.5s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield-closer

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 101.07% (holds late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

2ndClass 5 · 11.9f · rated 834thClass 4 · 12.0f · rated 806thClass 4 · 8.3f · rated 714thClass 2 · 12.1f · rated 793rdClass 3 · 10.0f · rated 70

Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time

Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Christian Williams

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 84 at/around today's trip, clears the ~81.0 demand

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields4th of 5

+0.05 mph

About the level of its fields · 37.9 raw

Break · 0-20mph5th of 5

+0.40s

Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · closing speed5th of 5

101.1%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length2nd of 5

7.18 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

14 Jun 26Doncaster11fGd/Sft2ndTrue38.4 +0.01103.7+0.42

5 Jun 26Goodwood11fGd/Sft4thFast early38.1 +0.13105.2+0.00

9 May 26Nottingham8fGood6thTrue39.1 +0.1399.1+1.26

28 Nov 25Southwell12fStd4thTrue38.4 +0.30104.2+0.22

25 Oct 25Newbury10fHeavy3rdFast early36.4 -0.1892.7+0.10

10 Oct 25York10fGood6thTrue38.8 -0.08101.5+0.37

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.67slow2f+0.74par3f+1.13fast4f+1.46very fast5f+1.63fast6f+1.60par7f+1.50slow1m+0.94slow1m 1f+0.05slow1m 2fledslow1m 3f+0.12par1m 4f+0.10slow

Timed runs 2025-10-10 to 2026-06-14. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

The top rating in this field (83.0)Only 2 runs at this distanceStable in form this week — 2 wins from 17 runsJockey goes well at this track (4.06x market expectation)Lost roughly 1.9 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultNEARLY WON LTO — traded 2.0 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Historically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“dwelt, held up, challenged from 3f out, led 2f out, tackled over 1f out, edged right, headed final ½f, kept on, clear of rest”

#2 BOOZIEBRUNCH (IRE) MID DOOR 2 · UNDER-RAISED WINNER

DRAW 2 · OR 75 · Tom Marquand / S. P. C. Woods

MARKET backed 6.2 → 4.8

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−

82.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

FormLab Figure

82.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 82

Official mark (OR)

75 · last won off 70

Record at today's distance

1 win from 2 tries · beats market expectation (1.69)

Days since last run

20

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.6s)
Usually races midfield-closer

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 101.59% (holds late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

1stClass 5 · 10.0f · rated 823rdClass 5 · 10.0f · rated 744thClass 5 · 8.0f · rated 764thClass 5 · 8.0f · rated 772ndClass 5 · 8.1f · rated 77

Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

S. P. C. Woods · 485 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.9 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

In fields of <=7 ✦20/13414.9%1.016/3417.6%1.16

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At this time of year (Q3)14/1728.1%0.720/110.0%0.0

Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦27/23411.5%0.913/427.1%0.58

On turf ✦12/1647.3%0.793/368.3%0.6

Above their last winning mark11/5719.3%1.33/2910.3%0.61

Over 9-10f trips5/568.9%0.982/1711.8%0.76

Too few runners to read reliably

At Epsom Downs (small sample)0/40.0%0.0—

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 81 at/around today's trip, clears the ~81.0 demand

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields3rd of 5

+0.08 mph

About the level of its fields · 40.2 raw

Break · 0-20mph3rd of 5

+0.22s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed4th of 5

101.6%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length1st of 5

7.33 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

26 Jun 26Newmarket10fGd/Frm1stTrue39.9 +0.22100.2-0.21

4 Jun 26Lingfield10fStd3rdTrue40.6 +0.70109.8+0.37

6 May 26Kempton Park8fSlow4thTrue38.1 -0.06102.0+0.49

24 Apr 26Doncaster7fGd/Frm4thTrue39.2 -0.23101.0-0.07

2 Apr 26Southwell8fStd2ndTrue38.5 +0.15101.9+0.30

4 Oct 25Newmarket7fGood21stTrue40.5 -0.3094.6+0.02

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1fledslow2fledslow3fledslow4fledfast5fledvery fast6fledvery fast7fledvery fast1mledpar1m 1fledslow1m 2fledvery slow

Timed runs 2025-10-04 to 2026-06-26. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

5lb above his last winning mark (75 today vs 70)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #2 in this field (82.0)Only 2 runs at this distanceHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance

LTO comment

“dropped out, headway when carried right over 2f out, took third final 1f, no further impression”

#3 PERFECT SCOUNDREL MID

DRAW 4 · OR 71 · Robert Havlin / Amanda Perrett

MARKET backed 4.5 → 2.74

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 7−

78.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

FormLab Figure

78.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 78

Official mark (OR)

71 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 6 tries

Days since last run

14

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.3s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 102.24% (holds late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

2ndClass 5 · 10.0f · rated 783rdClass 5 · 9.1f · rated 706thClass 5 · 12.0f · rated 708thClass 5 · 10.0f · rated 704thClass 4 · 9.9f · rated 69

Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Amanda Perrett · 209 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.2 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

Over 9-10f trips0/140.0%0.00/100.0%0.0

Coming back after 8 to 14 days2/296.9%0.580/50.0%0.0

At this time of year (Q3)5/677.5%0.870/50.0%0.0

On turf4/884.5%0.540/260.0%0.0

In Class 4-5 company9/1108.2%0.821/273.7%0.3

In fields of <=74/3013.3%1.231/128.3%0.64

At Epsom Downs1/128.3%0.75—

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 78 is below the ~81.0 the race demands

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields5th of 5

-0.01 mph

About the level of its fields · 39.4 raw

Break · 0-20mph2nd of 5

+0.20s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed3rd of 5

102.2%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length4th of 5

7.02 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

2 Jul 26Newbury10fGd/Frm2nd—40.3 +0.17105.4——

5 Jun 26Goodwood9fGd/Sft3rdTrue37.3 +0.02106.2+0.25

15 May 26Newbury12fGood6thFast early38.5 +0.0096.6+0.31

20 Apr 26Lingfield10fStd8thTrue39.7 -0.44106.7+0.28

17 Sep 25Sandown Park9fHeavy4thTrue37.7 +0.0098.4+0.18

9 Aug 25Lingfield11fGd/Frm2ndFast early38.1 +0.20100.2+0.00

Timed runs 2025-08-09 to 2026-07-02. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Rated #3 in this field (78.0)Jockey goes well at this track (2.53x market expectation)Historically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance

LTO comment

“prominent, led under 2f out, worn down close home”

#4 SHOW BIZ KID (IRE) MID

DRAW 3 · OR 72 · Dylan Hogan / Julia & Shelley Birkett

MARKET backed 9.4 → 8

Yard suits today’s conditions · 6+ / 0−

73 FORMLAB FIGURE

FormLab Figure

73 · ranked #4 here · career best 81

Official mark (OR)

72 · last won off 65

Record at today's distance

2 wins from 15 tries · beats market expectation (1.91)

Days since last run

28

Sectional clock

Last time: 0.8s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races prominent

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 102.61% (holds late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

5thClass 4 · 10.1f · rated 721stClass 6 · 10.2f · rated 784thClass 5 · 10.0f · rated 696thClass 5 · 10.2f · rated 647thClass 5 · 12.1f · rated 62

Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Julia & Shelley Birkett · 229 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.2 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At this time of year (Q3)3/427.1%0.72/633.3%2.96

In fields of <=74/3013.3%0.894/1428.6%2.52

Over 9-10f trips2/1910.5%1.413/1915.8%1.86

Coming back after 15 to 45 days10/9410.6%1.038/4418.2%1.62

On turf7/759.3%0.885/4012.5%1.57

Above their last winning mark4/636.3%0.524/2615.4%1.2

Too few runners to read reliably

At Epsom Downs (small sample)0/10.0%0.01/250.0%4.39

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 81 at/around today's trip, clears the ~81.0 demand

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields1st of 5

+0.16 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 38.6 raw

Break · 0-20mph4th of 5

+0.29s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed2nd of 5

102.6%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length5th of 5

7.00 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

18 Jun 26Yarmouth10fGd/Frm5thTrue39.0 -0.06104.3+0.20

26 May 26Bath10fGd/Frm1stTrue39.4 +0.12100.9+0.18

11 May 26Windsor10fGd/Frm4thTrue38.3 +0.22104.2+0.31

18 Apr 26Nottingham10fGood6thFast early38.2 -0.1997.9+0.53

12 Dec 25Southwell12fStd7thTrue37.1 +0.00102.3+0.09

26 Nov 25Southwell11fStd4thTrue38.2 +0.89106.1+0.41

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.80very slow2f+1.22very slow3f+1.36par4f+1.40par5f+1.38par6f+0.66very fast7f+0.39fast1m+0.22fast1m 1f+0.36par1m 2f+0.83slow

Timed runs 2025-11-26 to 2026-06-18. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

7lb above his last winning mark (72 today vs 65)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayProven over the trip (15 tries, beats market expectation at 1.91)Jockey goes well at this track (1.45x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market

LTO comment

“held up, headway over 3f out, no extra from 2f out”

#5 HELLO COTAI (IRE) MID

DRAW 1 · OR 66 · Jack Mitchell / Jim Boyle

MARKET backed 4.7 → 3.2

Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 4−

73.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

FormLab Figure

73.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 77

Official mark (OR)

66 · last won off 62

Record at today's distance

1 win from 4 tries · beats market expectation (1.39)

Days since last run

15

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.3s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 106.1% (strong late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

3rdClass 5 · 10.1f · rated 731stClass 5 · 10.0f · rated 736thClass 5 · 8.0f · rated 553rdClass 5 · 10.0f · rated 706thClass 5 · 8.5f · rated 63

Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Jim Boyle · 457 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.3 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

In fields of <=714/7817.9%1.133/2313.0%1.84

Over 9-10f trips8/5813.8%1.243/1915.8%1.71

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At Epsom Downs3/575.3%0.660/110.0%0.0

Above their last winning mark11/10110.9%0.762/385.3%0.43

On turf23/2489.3%0.873/605.0%0.64

Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦12/1697.1%0.684/488.3%0.77

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 77 is below the ~81.0 the race demands

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields2nd of 5

+0.12 mph

About the level of its fields · 39.6 raw

Break · 0-20mph1st of 5

+0.13s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed1st of 5

106.1%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length3rd of 5

7.17 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

1 Jul 26Epsom Downs10fGood3rd—39.5 +0.71106.9+0.18—

1 Jun 26Windsor10fGd/Frm1stTrue40.1 +0.42109.8+0.10

15 May 26Newbury8fGood6thFast early39.0 -0.2994.0+0.19

28 Apr 26Lingfield10fStd3rdTrue39.3 +0.16104.5+0.00

12 Sep 24Epsom Downs8fHeavy6thSlow early39.8 -0.69112.0+0.33

16 Aug 24Epsom Downs8fGd/Frm1stTrue41.9 +0.38109.4+0.00

Timed runs 2024-08-16 to 2026-07-01. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

4lb above his last winning mark (66 today vs 62)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayOnly 4 runs at this distanceHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (2 from 5 here)Sectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance

LTO comment

“in touch, shaken up over 2f out, disputed lead over 1f out, asserted final 100 yds”