FORMLAB RACING
THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT
Chepstow · 17:00
Class 5 · 6.07f · Good to Firm
GENERATED 2026-07-16 · 8 RUNNERS PROFILED
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 32.9%winner in the projected 1–2–3 68.5%73 races · latest settled day: #1 10/24, top-3 18/24
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners at this course and distance typically spend 49.7% of their energy before the final 2f and sit around 4 at halfway, 0.17s off the lead. The measured order tops SERENITY DREAM (IRE) on 77, 8pts clear of MAGNA. SERENITY DREAM (IRE): the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The shape danger is OUTER EDGE — the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 1
SERENITY DREAM (IRE)
OR 68 · Billy Loughnane / Tony Carroll
MARKET backed 3.4 → 2.96
77.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayThe top rating in this field (77.0)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 2
MAGNA
OR 68 · Rossa Ryan / Tony Carroll
69 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #2 in this field (69)Proven over the trip (17 tries, beats market expectation at 1.81)Jockey goes well at this track (1.49x market expectation)
3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 8
BE AN ANGEL
OR 56 · Lewis Edmunds / Rod Millman
MARKET backed 3.75 → 3.25
66.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #3 in this field (66.0)Proven over the trip (16 tries, beats market expectation at 1.38)Stable in form this week — 3 wins from 14 runs
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1SERENITY DREAM (IRE)net +10figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band
2MAGNAnet +7figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), sharp from the stalls, energy in the winning band, proven at trip, yard positive in today’s setup
3BE AN ANGELnet +7race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, proven at trip, proven on the going, yard hot, FormLab watch flag − burns early and empties
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
Worth A Second Look
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
OUTER EDGE  FIGURE #7
Christopher Mason's runners on turf win 27.8% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
contested early pace likely (4 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by front-runners 34% · prominent racers 32% (275 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Moderately stiff — uphill 2f+ then levels/dips; overall demanding on stamina finish. Draw: Round course inconclusive. straight sprint course: high numbers favoured when stalls stands-side, esp. on soft. Winners’ energy signature: 49.7% spent early (band 49.05–50.12%, 8 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~4 at halfway, 0.17s off the lead). Today 4 confirmed early types will contest the lead — at a track that rewards prominent racing a hot pace can compromise the pure front-runners, handing it to a prominent horse that sustains or a well-drawn closer.
Where the pace is drawn · 8 runners · stalls 1–8
12345678
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–8).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: SERENITY DREAM (IRE) is 0/3 on softer ground · MAGNA is 0/2 on softer ground · BE AN ANGEL is 0/3 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
SERENITY DREAM (IRE) MID 49.6% 101.1 the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
MAGNA PROMINENT 49.3% 100.5 a match for the quickest early, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls
CONNIE'S ROSE FRONT 51.6% 95.4 the quickest of today's early types, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f · sharp from the stalls
ZOULU WARRIOR (IRE) PROMINENT 49.3% 99.8 just behind the quickest early pair — presses, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls
VAPE PROMINENT 51.4% 96.4 a match for the quickest early, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f · sharp from the stalls
BE AN ANGEL MID 50.5% 97.9 held up without the late gear (6th of 8 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
SOME NIGHTMARE (IRE) MID 49.9% 99.1 one-paced late — 5th of 8 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
OUTER EDGE MID 49.2% 100.8 the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
CONNIE'S ROSEFRONTtypically ~2 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
MAGNAPROMINENTtypically ~1.8 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
VAPEPROMINENTtypically ~1.7 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
ZOULU WARRIOR (IRE)PROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1 SERENITY DREAM (IRE) MID
DRAW 1 · OR 68 · Billy Loughnane / Tony Carroll
MARKET backed 3.4 → 2.96
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−
77.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
77.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 87
Official mark (OR)
68 · last won off 68
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 19 tries · below market expectation (0.95)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.6s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 101.09% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 5 · 6.0f · rated 776thClass 4 · 7.0f · rated 715thClass 4 · 6.0f · rated 758thClass 5 · 5.0f · rated 513rdClass 5 · 6.0f · rated 74
Career sheet · last 18 months · 21 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for SERENITY DREAM (IRE)best 87needs 70–772025-02-11 · TFR 71 · 7.16f · Slow · C52025-02-22 · TFR 61 · 8.06f · Std · C42025-03-14 · TFR 67 · 7.06f · Std · C52025-03-30 · TFR 65 · 8f · Good · C52025-05-07 · TFR 70 · 7f · Std · C42025-05-24 · TFR 73 · 8.14f · Good · C5 · off-trip2025-06-06 · TFR 60 · 8f · Good · C42025-08-04 · TFR 76 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C52025-08-22 · TFR 75 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C52025-09-08 · TFR 70 · 6.05f · Good · C42025-09-24 · TFR 63 · 6f · Good · C42025-12-22 · TFR 55 · 7f · Std/Slow · C52026-01-14 · TFR 75 · 6f · Slow · C42026-02-07 · TFR 72 · 7f · Std · C52026-02-25 · TFR 79 · 6f · Slow · C52026-03-18 · TFR 69 · 6f · Slow · C52026-04-01 · TFR 74 · 6f · Slow · C52026-05-02 · TFR 51 · 5f · Good · C52026-05-09 · TFR 75 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C42026-06-07 · TFR 71 · 7f · Soft · C42026-07-02 · TFR 77 · 6f · Slow · C511 Feb 252 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tony Carroll · 2379 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange
Signature angle: at Bath, above their last winning mark, at this time of year (Q2), on turf, off a TFR-FALLING figure trend, with the mark MARK-FLAT, with a CLAIM-7 claimer up
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Chepstow0/170.0%0.06/2128.6%1.7
Back at their last winning mark11/5420.4%1.766/2821.4%1.57
On turf ✦97/70713.7%1.245/22320.2%1.42
Over 5-6f trips ✦95/63714.9%1.2245/27416.4%1.18
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3) ✦51/49310.3%0.954/449.1%0.72
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 87 at/around today's trip, clears the ~70.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 8
+0.60 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 8
+0.16s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 8
101.1%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length5th of 8
7.33 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
2 Jul 26Kempton Park6fSlow2ndFast early40.6 +0.8699.2+0.11
7 Jun 26Goodwood7fSoft6thFast early39.2 +0.51101.7+0.00
9 May 26Ascot6fGd/Frm5th—41.2 +0.00102.3+0.17—
2 May 26Goodwood5fGood8thTrue45.0 +0.1696.8+0.30
1 Apr 26Kempton Park6fSlow3rdTrue41.9 +1.27103.0+0.17
18 Mar 26Kempton Park6fSlow6thTrue41.4 +0.78103.5+0.19
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.04very fast2f+0.38fast3f+0.74par4f+0.53par5f+0.13slow6f+0.01very slow
Timed runs 2026-03-18 to 2026-07-02. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayThe top rating in this field (77.0)NEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.51 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“tracked pace, pushed along 2f out, challenged final 1f, carried left briefly, kept on”
#2 MAGNA PROMINENT
DRAW 2 · OR 68 · Rossa Ryan / Tony Carroll
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−
69 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
69 · ranked #2 here · career best 77
Official mark (OR)
68 · last won off 66
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 17 tries · beats market expectation (1.81)
Days since last run
41
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.4s)
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 100.49% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
7thClass 5 · 6.0f · rated 583rdClass 5 · 5.1f · rated 721stClass 5 · 6.1f · rated 771stClass 6 · 5.0f · rated 723rdClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 62
Career sheet · last 18 months · 17 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for MAGNAbest 77needs 70–772025-02-01 · TFR 36 · 8.65f · Slow · C6 · off-trip2025-02-12 · TFR 51 · 8f · Slow · C62025-02-26 · TFR 52 · 7f · Std · C62025-03-10 · TFR 52 · 8.02f · Slow · C62025-05-05 · TFR 38 · 7f · Std · C62025-09-06 · TFR 39 · 8.65f · Slow · C6 · off-trip2025-10-15 · TFR 56 · 7f · Std · C62025-10-30 · TFR 48 · 7.06f · Std · C62025-12-17 · TFR 62 · 6f · Std · C62026-01-04 · TFR 63 · 6.07f · Std · C62026-01-19 · TFR 59 · 6f · Std · C62026-02-04 · TFR 49 · 6f · Std · C62026-03-04 · TFR 62 · 6f · Slow · C62026-04-20 · TFR 72 · 5.03f · Std · C62026-05-05 · TFR 77 · 6.09f · Std · C52026-05-18 · TFR 72 · 5.1f · Std · C52026-06-05 · TFR 58 · 6f · Gd/Sft · C51 Feb 255 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tony Carroll · 2379 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange
Signature angle: at Bath, above their last winning mark, at this time of year (Q2), on turf, off a TFR-FALLING figure trend, with the mark MARK-FLAT, with a CLAIM-7 claimer up
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Chepstow0/170.0%0.06/2128.6%1.7
On turf ✦97/70713.7%1.245/22320.2%1.42
Over 5-6f trips ✦95/63714.9%1.2245/27416.4%1.18
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3) ✦51/49310.3%0.954/449.1%0.72
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 77 at/around today's trip, clears the ~70.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields6th of 8
-0.02 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 8
+0.02s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 8
100.5%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length8th of 8
7.27 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
5 Jun 26Goodwood6fGd/Sft7thTrue41.5 -0.8493.5+0.00
18 May 26Wolverhampton5fStd3rdTrue40.5 -0.02102.1+0.02
5 May 26Wolverhampton6fStd1stFast early41.3 -0.2099.0-0.05
20 Apr 26Lingfield5fStd1stTrue41.2 +0.00102.6+0.06
23 Mar 26Wolverhampton6fStandard1stSlow early40.8 +0.18106.8-0.03
4 Mar 26Kempton Park6fSlow3rdFast early40.7 +0.7399.0+0.12
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.03very fast2f+0.21fast3f+0.39par4f+0.78slow5f+1.07very slow6f+1.21very slow
Timed runs 2026-03-04 to 2026-06-05. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #2 in this field (69)Proven over the trip (17 tries, beats market expectation at 1.81)Jockey goes well at this track (1.49x market expectation)Historically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led early, headed before halfway, dropped away 2f out”
#3 BE AN ANGEL MID DOOR 2 · UNDER-RAISED WINNER
DRAW 8 · OR 56 · Lewis Edmunds / Rod Millman
MARKET backed 3.75 → 3.25
Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−
66.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
66.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 73
Official mark (OR)
56 · last won off 56
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 16 tries · beats market expectation (1.38)
Days since last run
5
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.6s)
Usually races midfield · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 97.86% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
1stClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 665thClass 6 · 5.1f · rated 507thClass 6 · 6.1f · rated 4711thClass 6 · 6.1f · rated 5110thClass 5 · 5.7f · rated 65
Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for BE AN ANGELbest 73needs 70–772025-04-05 · TFR 68 · 5.1f · Slow · C52025-04-15 · TFR 66 · 7f · Std · C52025-05-07 · TFR 52 · 7f · Std · C52025-05-26 · TFR 73 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C52025-06-13 · TFR 66 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C42025-07-05 · TFR 32 · 6.08f · Good · C52025-07-26 · TFR 66 · 6.05f · Gd/Frm · C52025-08-11 · TFR 70 · 6.05f · Gd/Frm · C52025-09-01 · TFR 62 · 6.05f · Gd/Sft · C52025-09-12 · TFR 62 · 6f · Soft · C52025-09-30 · TFR 65 · 5.73f · Gd/Frm · C52025-10-25 · TFR 51 · 6.09f · Slow · C62026-06-06 · TFR 47 · 6.07f · Soft · C62026-06-22 · TFR 50 · 5.1f · Gd/Frm · C62026-07-11 · TFR 66 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C65 Apr 2511 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Rod Millman · 773 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.3 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)29/24311.9%0.995/2025.0%2.16
Too few runners to read reliably
Coming back after within 7 days (small sample)7/1936.8%1.613/560.0%2.68
At Chepstow (small sample)2/1020.0%1.272/1315.4%1.37
Back at their last winning mark (small sample)3/1717.6%1.391/1010.0%0.77
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 73 at/around today's trip, clears the ~70.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 8
+0.01 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 8
+0.15s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 8
97.9%
One-paced late
Stride length4th of 8
7.34 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
11 Jul 26Salisbury6fGd/Frm1st—40.8 +0.43100.1+0.00—
22 Jun 26Windsor5fGd/Frm5thTrue43.1 -0.0299.0—
6 Jun 26Chepstow6fSoft7thTrue40.3 +0.4096.6+0.32
25 Oct 25Wolverhampton6fSlow11thTrue39.9 -0.51101.7—
30 Sep 25Bath5fGd/Frm10thTrue41.2 -0.1596.9+0.04
12 Sep 25Salisbury6fSoft3rdFast early38.4 -0.0892.9+0.26
Timed runs 2025-09-12 to 2026-07-11. · 2 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #3 in this field (66.0)Improving fast — last run rated 66, 11pts above his recent average of 54.3Proven over the trip (16 tries, beats market expectation at 1.38)Stable in form this week — 3 wins from 14 runsRace-fit — ran 5 days agoHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“held up, headway before halfway, chased leaders under 2f out, hung right over 1f out, not sustain effort”
#4 CONNIE'S ROSE FRONT
DRAW 6 · OR 66 · Kieran O'Neill / Grace Harris
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−
60 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
60 · ranked #4 here · career best 80
Official mark (OR)
66 · last won off 72
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 35 tries · below market expectation (0.38)
Days since last run
16
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.5s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Run style & finish
Front-runner · finishing speed 95.43% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 4 · 5.0f · rated 532ndClass 5 · 5.1f · rated 767thClass 4 · 7.1f · rated 512ndClass 6 · 7.1f · rated 723rdClass 5 · 7.1f · rated 70
Career sheet · last 18 months · 20 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for CONNIE'S ROSEbest 80needs 70–772025-04-04 · TFR 61 · 5.05f · Gd/Frm · C42025-04-20 · TFR 33 · 5.05f · Firm · C42025-05-23 · TFR 37 · 5.73f · Gd/Frm · C52025-06-16 · TFR 72 · 6.07f · Gd/Frm · C52025-06-23 · TFR 67 · 5.07f · Good · C52025-07-17 · TFR 69 · 6.07f · Gd/Sft · C52025-07-25 · TFR 75 · 5.07f · Good · C52025-08-05 · TFR 62 · 5.15f · Gd/Frm · C52025-08-16 · TFR 69 · 5.73f · Firm · C52025-08-25 · TFR 67 · 5.07f · Good · C62025-09-22 · TFR 60 · 6f · Good · C52025-10-09 · TFR 68 · 5.73f · Good · C52025-10-20 · TFR 38 · 5.73f · Soft · C52026-04-17 · TFR 64 · 5.73f · Good · C42026-04-29 · TFR 26 · 5.05f · Firm · C52026-05-21 · TFR 70 · 7.07f · Good · C52026-05-29 · TFR 72 · 7.07f · Gd/Frm · C62026-06-06 · TFR 51 · 7.07f · Soft · C42026-06-15 · TFR 76 · 5.07f · Good · C52026-06-30 · TFR 53 · 5f · Good · C44 Apr 2530 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Grace Harris · 445 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.1 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 8-11 ✦13/1827.1%1.037/5612.5%1.29
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)11/1308.5%0.830/130.0%0.0
In Class 4-5 company7/1016.9%0.833/585.2%0.67
At Chepstow1/342.9%0.192/277.4%0.67
Below their last winning mark1/254.0%0.352/316.5%0.68
Over 5-6f trips ✦18/2198.2%0.855/746.8%0.8
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 80 at/around today's trip, clears the ~70.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields7th of 8
-0.11 mph
About the level of its fields · 42.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 8
-0.04s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 4 of 5
Finish · closing speed8th of 8
95.4%
One-paced late
Stride length2nd of 8
7.58 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
30 Jun 26Salisbury5fGood4thTrue40.2 +0.0195.7-0.14
15 Jun 26Chepstow5fGood2ndTrue43.3 +0.0099.8-0.16
6 Jun 26Chepstow7fSoft7thTrue41.5 -0.1691.5-0.03
29 May 26Chepstow7fGd/Frm2ndTrue43.2 -0.0596.1-0.08
29 Apr 26Bath5fFirm6thTrue41.5 -0.4795.8—
17 Apr 26Bath5fGood5thTrue40.4 +0.0293.6+0.21
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.10very fast2f+0.28par3f+0.49slow4f+0.65very slow5f+1.25very slow
Timed runs 2026-04-17 to 2026-06-30. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
6lb below his last winning mark (66 today vs 72)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“handy, weakened over 1f out”
#5 SOME NIGHTMARE (IRE) MID
DRAW 7 · OR 50 · Luke Morris / John O'Shea
MARKET drifting 11 → 17
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 2−
55.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
55.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 80
Official mark (OR)
50 · last won off 55
Record at today's distance
1 win from 35 tries · below market expectation (0.29)
Days since last run
19
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 99.12% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 6 · 5.1f · rated 554thClass 5 · 5.1f · rated 555thClass 6 · 5.1f · rated 413rdClass 5 · 5.7f · rated 574thClass 5 · 5.0f · rated 46
Career sheet · last 18 months · 23 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for SOME NIGHTMARE (IRE)best 80needs 70–772025-03-03 · TFR 57 · 5.1f · Std/Slow · C62025-04-07 · TFR 37 · 6.09f · Slow · C62025-04-28 · TFR 58 · 5.1f · Gd/Frm · C52025-05-12 · TFR 45 · 5.1f · Gd/Frm · C52025-06-23 · TFR 48 · 5.07f · Good · C52025-07-02 · TFR 54 · 5.07f · Gd/Frm · C62025-07-16 · TFR 47 · 5.73f · Firm · C62025-08-14 · TFR 61 · 6.07f · Good · C62025-08-25 · TFR 63 · 5.07f · Good · C62025-11-08 · TFR 34 · 5.1f · Slow · C62025-11-29 · TFR 57 · 6.09f · Slow · C62025-12-13 · TFR 59 · 5.1f · Slow · C62026-01-16 · TFR 55 · 6.09f · Std · C62026-01-27 · TFR 60 · 5.1f · Std · C62026-02-02 · TFR 57 · 5.1f · Std · C62026-02-09 · TFR 46 · 6.09f · Std · C62026-02-17 · TFR 54 · 5.1f · Std · C62026-04-09 · TFR 47 · 5.1f · Std · C62026-04-29 · TFR 46 · 5.05f · Firm · C52026-05-12 · TFR 57 · 5.73f · Good · C52026-06-06 · TFR 41 · 5.07f · Soft · C62026-06-15 · TFR 55 · 5.07f · Good · C52026-06-27 · TFR 55 · 5.07f · Gd/Frm · C63 Mar 2527 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John O'Shea · 211 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.9 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Chepstow3/2213.6%1.432/1118.2%1.24
On turf8/978.2%0.783/2313.0%1.22
Over 5-6f trips2/464.3%0.543/2412.5%1.17
In Class 4-5 company2/553.6%0.481/166.2%1.16
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 8-115/895.6%0.761/333.0%0.36
Below their last winning mark0/30.0%0.01/205.0%0.49
Too few runners to read reliably
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)6/738.2%0.830/30.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 80 at/around today's trip, clears the ~70.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 8
+0.00 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 8
+0.04s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 8
99.1%
One-paced late
Stride length7th of 8
7.28 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
27 Jun 26Chepstow5fGd/Frm3rdTrue41.8 -0.0599.2-0.10
15 Jun 26Chepstow5fGood4thTrue43.0 -0.2999.1+0.04
6 Jun 26Chepstow5fSoft5thFast early41.3 -0.1194.8+0.07
12 May 26Bath5fGood3rdFast early39.7 +0.1898.8-0.05
29 Apr 26Bath5fFirm4thTrue42.2 +0.2299.0—
9 Apr 26Wolverhampton5fStd8thTrue40.6 +0.07103.9+0.23
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledfast2fledpar3fledpar4fledslow5f+0.26slow
Timed runs 2026-04-09 to 2026-06-27. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
5lb below his last winning mark (50 today vs 55)Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 5 todayBOOKING UPGRADE — 12m top-6 jockey booked, only 2 ride(s) for this yard in 12m, after non-elite riders on the horse: an intent read (context only,…Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 7 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“waited with, headway when hung left over 2f out, no extra final 1f”
#6 ZOULU WARRIOR (IRE) PROMINENT
DRAW 3 · OR 66 · Saffie Osborne / Heather Main
MARKET drifting 6.6 → 10
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 6−
53.7 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
53.7 · ranked #6 here · career best 75
Official mark (OR)
66 · last won off 65
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 14 tries · beats market expectation (1.62)
Days since last run
27
Sectional clock
Last time: 2.0s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 99.83% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
14thClass 5 · 6.0f · rated 257thClass 5 · 6.1f · rated 664thClass 5 · 6.1f · rated 701stClass 6 · 6.1f · rated 751stClass 6 · 6.1f · rated 73
Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for ZOULU WARRIOR (IRE)best 75needs 70–772025-08-19 · TFR 69 · 5.07f · Gd/Sft · C62025-09-08 · TFR 38 · 5f · Slow · C62025-09-30 · TFR 72 · 5.73f · Gd/Frm · C52025-11-04 · TFR 73 · 6.09f · Slow · C52025-11-25 · TFR 35 · 6f · Std · C52025-12-08 · TFR 72 · 6.09f · Slow · C62025-12-18 · TFR 73 · 6.07f · Std · C62025-12-27 · TFR 75 · 6.09f · Slow · C62026-01-19 · TFR 70 · 6.09f · Std · C52026-02-20 · TFR 66 · 6.07f · Std/Slow · C52026-06-19 · TFR 25 · 6f · Good · C519 Aug 2519 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Heather Main · 307 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Chepstow2/1020.0%2.03—
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 5-6f trips8/7011.4%1.160/180.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days12/11510.4%1.00/200.0%0.0
Above their last winning mark8/4816.7%1.090/250.0%0.0
In fields of 8-1116/12812.5%1.170/270.0%0.0
In Class 4-5 company14/1787.9%0.891/382.6%0.25
On turf11/1666.6%0.781/283.6%0.35
Too few runners to read reliably
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)10/1079.3%1.020/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 75 at/around today's trip, clears the ~70.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 8
-0.00 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 8
+0.00s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 5 of 6
Finish · closing speed4th of 8
99.8%
One-paced late
Stride length6th of 8
7.32 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
19 Jun 26Newmarket6fGood14thTrue42.1 +0.4192.0+0.06
20 Feb 26Southwell6fStd/Slow7thTrue40.0 -0.05105.4+0.00
19 Jan 26Wolverhampton6fStd4thTrue39.2 -0.37102.6+0.00
27 Dec 25Wolverhampton6fSlow1stFast early40.9 -0.2198.6-0.01
8 Dec 25Wolverhampton6fSlow2ndTrue40.4 +0.22101.9-0.04
25 Nov 25Lingfield6fStd9thFast early41.8 +0.0098.4+0.00
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.19fast2f+0.26par3f+0.35par4f+0.50slow5f+1.42very slow6f+2.87very slow
Timed runs 2025-11-25 to 2026-06-19. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 5 todayProven over the trip (14 tries, beats market expectation at 1.62)Jockey goes well at this track (1.73x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 1 here)Runs Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“tracked pace, weakened 2f out”
#7 OUTER EDGE MID
DRAW 4 · OR 50 · Tyler Heard / Christopher Mason
MARKET drifting 11.63 → 18
Yard suits today’s conditions · 8+ / 0−
49.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
49.3 · ranked #7 here · career best 62
Official mark (OR)
50 · last won off 55
Record at today's distance
1 win from 18 tries · below market expectation (0.74)
Days since last run
17
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.0s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.85% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 425thClass 6 · 6.1f · rated 584thClass 6 · 5.1f · rated 484thClass 6 · 5.1f · rated 528thClass 6 · 6.1f · rated 47
Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for OUTER EDGEneeds 70–77best 622025-04-07 · TFR 34 · 6.09f · Slow · C62025-04-28 · TFR 62 · 5.1f · Std · C62025-05-10 · TFR 36 · 4.99f · Gd/Frm · C52025-06-16 · TFR 54 · 5.1f · Slow · C62025-09-02 · TFR 47 · 6.09f · Slow · C62025-10-11 · TFR 52 · 5.1f · Slow · C62025-10-27 · TFR 48 · 5.1f · Slow · C62026-05-23 · TFR 58 · 6.05f · Gd/Frm · C62026-06-29 · TFR 42 · 6f · Good · C67 Apr 2529 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Christopher Mason · 167 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: over 5-6f trips, on turf
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 4-5 company9/6913.0%1.166/2227.3%2.71
Below their last winning mark—1/425.0%2.25
At this time of year (Q3)6/5710.5%0.833/837.5%2.25
In fields of 8-1110/6216.1%1.395/2123.8%2.03
On turf ✦14/10014.0%1.1310/3627.8%1.98
Over 5-6f trips ✦16/11613.8%1.1610/4025.0%1.85
At Chepstow2/1020.0%1.12/540.0%1.84
Coming back after 15 to 45 days9/6414.1%1.126/2326.1%1.64
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 62 is below the ~70.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields8th of 8
-0.18 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 41.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph8th of 8
+0.20s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 8
100.8%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length1st of 8
7.90 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
29 Jun 26Ffos Las6fGood4thTrue39.9 -0.23100.5+0.21
23 May 26Windsor6fGd/Frm5th—43.3 +0.4397.9+0.14
27 Oct 25Wolverhampton5fSlow4thTrue39.8 -1.04104.1+0.27
11 Oct 25Wolverhampton5fSlow4thTrue41.6 +0.34102.3+0.11
2 Sep 25Wolverhampton6fSlow8thFast early40.9 -0.3398.8—
16 Jun 25Wolverhampton5fSlow4thTrue40.5 -0.26101.4+0.27
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.13par2f+0.13slow3f+0.15slow4f+0.24par5f+0.58par6f+1.13slow
Timed runs 2025-06-16 to 2026-06-29. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
5lb below his last winning mark (50 today vs 55)Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 5 todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“chased leader, outpaced, hung left around 2f out, rallied final 1f”
#8 VAPE PROMINENT
DRAW 5 · OR 60 · Charlie Tucker / John & Rhys Flint
MARKET 40
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 7−
29.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
29.0 · ranked #8 here · career best 78
Official mark (OR)
60 · last won off 60
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 15 tries · beats market expectation (1.22)
Days since last run
29
Sectional clock
Last time: 2.0s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 96.44% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 6 · 5.0f · rated 2910thClass 6 · 7.1f · rated 1711thClass 6 · 6.1f · rated 131stClass 6 · 6.1f · rated 691stClass 6 · 6.1f · rated 64
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for VAPEbest 78needs 70–772025-06-23 · TFR 39 · 6.05f · Gd/Frm · C62025-08-14 · TFR 62 · 6.97f · Good · C62025-08-18 · TFR 64 · 6.05f · Good · C62025-08-19 · TFR 69 · 6.07f · Gd/Sft · C62025-09-20 · TFR 13 · 6.09f · Slow · C62026-05-29 · TFR 17 · 7.07f · Gd/Frm · C62026-06-17 · TFR 29 · 5f · Soft · C623 Jun 2517 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John & Rhys Flint · 185 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 4-5 company2/702.9%0.60/240.0%0.0
At Chepstow4/1040.0%2.220/90.0%0.0
Over 5-6f trips6/2722.2%1.750/100.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days5/667.6%0.980/240.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)7/719.9%1.090/70.0%0.0
On turf11/1288.6%1.081/382.6%0.35
In fields of 8-114/735.5%0.711/263.8%0.57
Too few runners to read reliably
Back at their last winning mark (small sample)1/425.0%4.160/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 78 at/around today's trip, clears the ~70.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 8
+0.23 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 41.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 8
+0.03s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 8
96.4%
One-paced late
Stride length3rd of 8
7.36 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
17 Jun 26Ffos Las5fSoft4thFast early40.8 -0.3694.0-0.04
29 May 26Chepstow7fGd/Frm10thTrue43.5 +0.3091.4+0.24
20 Sep 25Wolverhampton6fSlow11thTrue41.3 +0.3794.5+0.05
18 Aug 25Windsor6fGood1stTrue40.7 +0.4199.1+0.13
14 Aug 25Salisbury6fGood2ndTrue37.6 +0.50103.9-0.29
23 Jun 25Windsor6fGd/Frm12thTrue42.6 +0.1695.9+0.04
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.06very fast2f+0.07par3f+0.45very slow4f+0.92very slow5f+1.97very slow
Timed runs 2025-06-23 to 2026-06-17. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 5 todayImproving fast — last run rated 29, 9pts above his recent average of 19.7Proven over the trip (15 tries, beats market expectation at 1.22)Jockey goes well at this track (2.23x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 2 here)Runs Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“held up, ridden halfway, soon beaten”