FORMLAB Race Report — Chepstow 15:50

FORMLAB RACING

THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT

Chepstow · 15:50

Class 5 · 8.06f · Good to Firm

GENERATED 2026-07-16 · 6 RUNNERS PROFILED

THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 32.9%winner in the projected 1–2–3 68.5%73 races · latest settled day: #1 10/24, top-3 18/24

The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW

RATING (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. The measured order tops STENMARK (IRE) on 86, 5pts clear of ECHALAR (IRE). STENMARK (IRE): the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field — needs them to stop in front. The shape danger is PENELOPE VALENTINE — the strongest late speed in this field — profits if the early types overdo it.

MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE

The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3

1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 4

STENMARK (IRE)

OR 75 · Rossa Ryan / Gihan Arnolda

MARKET 1.9

86.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD

Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayThe top rating in this field (86.0)Jockey goes well at this track (1.49x market expectation)Race-fit — ran 7 days ago

2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 6

ECHALAR (IRE)

OR 75 · Billy Loughnane / Ian Williams

MARKET drifting 7.2 → 8.8

81.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD

2lb below his last winning mark (75 today vs 77)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #2 in this field (81.0)Stable in form this week — 2 wins from 17 runs

3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 5

PENELOPE VALENTINE

OR 72 · Luke Morris / James Owen

MARKET backed 21 → 15

73.7 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD

Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayRated #3 in this field (73.7)Historically underestimated by the market

The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY

1STENMARK (IRE)net +6figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 speed vs its fields, FormLab watch flag

2ECHALAR (IRE)net +5figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, yard positive in today’s setup

3DAPPLED LIGHTnet +5race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, sharp from the stalls, proven at trip, proven on the going − 5lb+ above last winning mark

EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD

Race ShapePACE × FINISH

one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.

What this course & distance favours

Won by front-runners 29% · prominent racers 28% (210 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Moderately stiff — uphill 2f+ then levels/dips; overall demanding on stamina finish. Only one confirmed early type — the likely leader can dictate, a real edge at a track this front/prominent-biased.

Where the pace is drawn · 6 runners · stalls 1–6

123456

Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–6).

If the ground changes

Should it turn softer: STENMARK (IRE) is 0/3 on softer ground · ECHALAR (IRE) is 0/3 on softer ground · PENELOPE VALENTINE is 0/2 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).

RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup

STENMARK (IRE) MID 50.7% 100.4 the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field — needs them to stop in front

ECHALAR (IRE) MID 49.5% 99.9 one-paced late — 5th of 6 on late speed in this field — needs them to stop in front

PENELOPE VALENTINE HELD-UP 47.9% 106.1 the strongest late speed in this field — profits if the early types overdo it

KODI FIRE (IRE) MID 50.4% 96.3 held up without the late gear (6th of 6 on late speed) — needs them to stop in front

DAPPLED LIGHT MID 49.7% 100.3 one-paced late — 4th of 6 on late speed in this field — needs them to stop in front

RATING (IRE) PROMINENT 49.5% 101.1 the only measured early speed in the race — and holds on late · sharp from the stalls

The early fight · measured

Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.

RATING (IRE)PROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest

RATING (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.

The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER

#1 STENMARK (IRE) MID FORMLAB WATCH

DRAW 4 · OR 75 · Rossa Ryan / Gihan Arnolda

MARKET 1.9

86.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

FormLab Figure

86.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 86

Official mark (OR)

75 · last won off 74

Record at today's distance

1 win from 15 tries · below market expectation (0.63)

Days since last run

7

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade below par (-0.6s) · among the slowest in its race
Usually races prominent and weakens · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 100.43% (one-paced late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

2ndClass 5 · 7.0f · rated 868thClass 4 · 7.0f · rated 763rdClass 4 · 7.0f · rated 835thClass 4 · 7.2f · rated 815thClass 4 · 7.1f · rated 73

Career sheet · last 18 months · 12 rated runs · spacing is real time

Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Gihan Arnolda

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 87 at/around today's trip, clears the ~81.0 demand

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields2nd of 6

+0.04 mph

About the level of its fields · 40.4 raw

Break · 0-20mph4th of 6

+0.22s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed3rd of 6

100.4%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length3rd of 6

7.40 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

9 Jul 26Epsom Downs7fGd/Frm2nd—43.4 +0.16106.9+0.51—

19 Jun 26Newmarket7fGood8thTrue40.4 +0.1097.7+0.23

28 May 26Yarmouth7fGd/Frm3rdTrue40.8 +0.15104.3+0.22

27 Feb 26Wolverhampton7fStd5thTrue39.3 -0.03100.7+0.17

6 Feb 26Newcastle7fStd5thFast early40.8 +0.1497.3+0.18

6 Nov 25Chelmsford City8fSlow6thFast early40.4 -0.3195.6+0.00

Timed runs 2025-11-06 to 2026-07-09. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayThe top rating in this field (86.0)Jockey goes well at this track (1.49x market expectation)Lost roughly 2.3 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultBOOKING UPGRADE — 12m top-3 jockey booked, only 0 ride(s) for this yard in 12m, after non-elite riders on the horse: an intent read (context only,…Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 7 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“slowly away, shaken up under 3f out, stayed on final 1f”

#2 ECHALAR (IRE) MID

DRAW 6 · OR 75 · Billy Loughnane / Ian Williams

MARKET drifting 7.2 → 8.8

81.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

FormLab Figure

81.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 87

Official mark (OR)

75 · last won off 77

Record at today's distance

1 win from 13 tries · below market expectation (0.87)

Days since last run

19

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.4s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 99.94% (one-paced late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

3rdClass 5 · 8.1f · rated 8110thClass 2 · 10.3f · rated 247thClass 4 · 9.5f · rated 766thClass 2 · 8.1f · rated 786thClass 4 · 8.0f · rated 58

Career sheet · last 18 months · 12 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Christian Williams

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 88 at/around today's trip, clears the ~81.0 demand

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields6th of 6

-0.14 mph

About the level of its fields · 39.9 raw

Break · 0-20mph5th of 6

+0.28s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed5th of 6

99.9%

One-paced late

Stride length4th of 6

7.36 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

27 Jun 26Chepstow8fGd/Frm3rdTrue41.9 -0.01101.9+0.13

8 May 26Chester10fGood10thTrue39.3 -0.6195.4+0.87

27 Apr 26Wolverhampton9fStd7thFast early38.9 +0.3999.6+0.31

7 Apr 26Southwell8fStd6thFast early39.3 -0.0199.7+0.10

12 Mar 26Chelmsford City8fStd6thTrue39.3 -0.0899.2+0.02

20 Feb 26Southwell7fStd/Slow11thSlow early39.8 -0.51103.9+0.27

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.38very slow2f+0.48very slow3f+0.50par4f+0.46fast5f+0.42fast6f+0.34fast7f+0.19fast1m+0.22very fast

Timed runs 2026-02-20 to 2026-06-27. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

2lb below his last winning mark (75 today vs 77)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #2 in this field (81.0)Improving fast — last run rated 81, 20pts above his recent average of 60.3Stable in form this week — 2 wins from 17 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price

LTO comment

“very slowly away, always behind”

#3 PENELOPE VALENTINE HELD-UP

DRAW 5 · OR 72 · Luke Morris / James Owen

MARKET backed 21 → 15

73.7 FORMLAB FIGURE

FormLab Figure

73.7 · ranked #3 here · career best 80

Official mark (OR)

72 · last won off 69

Record at today's distance

4 wins from 22 tries · beats market expectation (1.19)

Days since last run

28

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade below par (-0.5s)
Usually races midfield-closer

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 106.12% (strong late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

6thClass 4 · 10.1f · rated 682ndClass 5 · 8.3f · rated 803rdClass 4 · 8.1f · rated 739thClass 2 · 7.0f · rated 721stClass 5 · 8.6f · rated 80

Career sheet · last 18 months · 22 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

James Owen · 1533 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange

Signature angle: at 4-8 odds, without a recent yard winner, on Good to Firm ground

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Too few runners to read reliably

At Chepstow (small sample)1/520.0%2.011/616.7%0.77

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 82 at/around today's trip, clears the ~81.0 demand

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields1st of 6

+0.21 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 39.2 raw

Break · 0-20mph6th of 6

+0.29s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed1st of 6

106.1%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length5th of 6

7.31 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

18 Jun 26Yarmouth10fGd/Frm6thTrue38.8 -0.25104.4+0.30

31 May 26Nottingham8fGood2ndTrue39.5 +0.61107.7+0.58

11 Mar 26Southwell8fStd3rdTrue40.0 +0.34107.1+0.12

27 Feb 26Lingfield7fStd/Slow9thTrue40.8 +0.18104.7+0.29

26 Jan 26Wolverhampton8fStd1stFast early38.2 +0.36104.8+0.35

31 Dec 25Lingfield7fStd4thTrue41.9 +0.03108.0+0.13

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+1.24very slow2f+1.55very slow3f+1.78par4f+1.82par5f+1.71par6f+1.02very fast7f+0.74fast1m+0.63fast1m 1f+0.77par1m 2f+1.27slow

Timed runs 2025-12-31 to 2026-06-18. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

3lb above his last winning mark (72 today vs 69)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayRated #3 in this field (73.7)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market

LTO comment

“always behind”

#4 DAPPLED LIGHT MID

DRAW 2 · OR 64 · Finley Marsh / Adrian Wintle

MARKET drifting 4.8 → 6.4

Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 2−

72.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

FormLab Figure

72.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 72

Official mark (OR)

64 · last won off 59

Record at today's distance

5 wins from 22 tries · beats market expectation (1.39)

Days since last run

16

Sectional clock

Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 100.31% (one-paced late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

2ndClass 6 · 7.4f · rated 721stClass 6 · 8.0f · rated 721stClass 6 · 8.0f · rated 647thClass 6 · 8.0f · rated 438thClass 6 · 9.5f · rated 47

Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Adrian Wintle · 581 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.6 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

In fields of <=78/6013.3%0.768/3522.9%1.6

Above their last winning mark9/1237.3%0.626/3616.7%1.27

Coming back after 15 to 45 days20/2199.1%0.8311/9212.0%1.21

On turf22/2239.9%0.7913/8914.6%1.18

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At Chepstow2/1910.5%0.851/137.7%0.5

In Class 4-5 company7/1096.4%0.882/306.7%0.8

Too few runners to read reliably

At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)17/14212.0%0.944/1040.0%2.61

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 72 is below the ~81.0 the race demands

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields5th of 6

-0.12 mph

About the level of its fields · 39.0 raw

Break · 0-20mph1st of 6

+0.03s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed4th of 6

100.3%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length6th of 6

7.13 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

30 Jun 26Ffos Las7.2fGood2ndFast early40.8 +0.30105.8+0.16

13 Jun 26Bath8fGood1stTrue39.0 +0.0798.7+0.06

22 May 26Bath8fGd/Frm1stTrue39.7 +0.00102.3+0.00

17 Apr 26Bath8fGd/Sft7thTrue37.1 -0.3397.0-0.04

28 Oct 25Wolverhampton9fSlow8thTrue37.6 -0.02102.3+0.00

30 Sep 25Bath8fGd/Frm5thTrue39.5 -0.7595.8+0.03

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.44par2f+0.48slow3f+0.38slow4f+0.23fast5f+0.09fast6fledpar7f+0.17par

Timed runs 2025-09-30 to 2026-06-30. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

5lb above his last winning mark (64 today vs 59)Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 5 todayProven over the trip (22 tries, beats market expectation at 1.39)Historically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“led early, headed after 2f, stayed prominent, went on over 2f out, tackled soon after, just held on, game”

#5 KODI FIRE (IRE) MID

DRAW 1 · OR 68 · Jason Watson / Charles Hills

MARKET backed 18 → 14

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−

66.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

FormLab Figure

66.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 79

Official mark (OR)

68 · last won off 68

Record at today's distance

3 wins from 8 tries · beats market expectation (4.02)

Days since last run

25

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade below par (-0.2s)
Usually races midfield

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 96.32% (one-paced late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

4thClass 5 · 8.0f · rated 668thClass 4 · 8.0f · rated 375thClass 5 · 8.1f · rated 6914thClass 4 · 8.0f · rated —5thClass 5 · 9.5f · rated 67

Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Charles Hills · 731 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.0 on the exchange

Signature angle: switching jockey after a defeat

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

In Class 4-5 company32/3509.1%0.712/7615.8%1.3

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

On turf ✦41/4319.5%0.96/946.4%0.63

In fields of <=722/12218.0%1.034/4010.0%0.64

At this time of year (Q3)20/2577.8%0.762/238.7%0.74

Too few runners to read reliably

At Chepstow (small sample)0/20.0%0.00/20.0%0.0

Back at their last winning mark (small sample)—0/10.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 83 at/around today's trip, clears the ~81.0 demand

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields3rd of 6

-0.03 mph

About the level of its fields · 38.8 raw

Break · 0-20mph3rd of 6

+0.14s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed6th of 6

96.3%

One-paced late

Stride length2nd of 6

7.42 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

21 Jun 26Brighton7fGd/Frm4thTrue42.2 +0.1997.4—

23 May 26Salisbury8fGood8th—37.5 -0.3090.9+0.26

7 May 26Windsor8fGd/Frm5thTrue39.5 -0.1498.3+0.11

20 Sep 25Newbury8fSoft14thFast early38.8 +0.1983.7+0.26

2 Sep 25Wolverhampton9fSlow5thTrue38.6 -0.09104.1+0.05

14 Aug 25Windsor8fFirm1stTrue39.7 -0.03103.5+0.00

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.52very slow2f+0.82slow3f+0.69par4f+0.86fast5f+0.61par6f+0.35par7f+0.33par1m+0.89slow

Timed runs 2025-08-14 to 2026-06-21. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayProven over the trip (8 tries, beats market expectation at 4.02)Stable cold this week — 0 wins from 10 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market

LTO comment

“held up, outpaced over 1f out, stayed on final 1f, never on terms”

#6 RATING (IRE) PROMINENT

DRAW 3 · OR 63 · Ashley Lewis / Grace Harris

MARKET 12.5

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−

66.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

FormLab Figure

66.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 78

Official mark (OR)

63 · last won off 62

Record at today's distance

2 wins from 20 tries · beats market expectation (1.05)

Days since last run

19

Sectional clock

Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races prominent

Run style & finish

Prominent · finishing speed 101.11% (holds late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

5thClass 5 · 8.1f · rated 665thClass 5 · 8.0f · rated 561stClass 6 · 8.0f · rated 703rdClass 6 · 8.0f · rated 702ndClass 6 · 10.2f · rated 69

Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Grace Harris · 445 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.1 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At this time of year (Q3)11/1308.5%0.830/130.0%0.0

In fields of <=7 ✦7/6510.8%0.673/417.3%0.6

In Class 4-5 company7/1016.9%0.833/585.2%0.67

At Chepstow1/342.9%0.192/277.4%0.67

Above their last winning mark7/977.2%0.614/3611.1%0.82

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 78 is below the ~81.0 the race demands

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields4th of 6

-0.03 mph

About the level of its fields · 39.4 raw

Break · 0-20mph2nd of 6

+0.03s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed2nd of 6

101.1%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length1st of 6

7.47 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

27 Jun 26Chepstow8fGd/Frm5thTrue41.9 +0.00100.5+0.01

14 Jun 26Salisbury8fGood5thFast early38.3 +0.0098.5+0.22

26 May 26Bath8fGd/Frm1stTrue39.6 +0.18101.0+0.00

22 May 26Bath8fGd/Frm3rdTrue39.3 -0.42101.1+0.00

27 Apr 26Bath10fGd/Frm2ndTrue37.7 -0.52103.9-0.11

17 Apr 26Bath8fGd/Sft3rdTrue38.0 +0.57101.7+0.04

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.14very slow2f+0.42very slow3f+0.55par4f+0.52fast5f+0.40fast6f+0.22fast7f+0.23par1m+0.48fast

Timed runs 2026-04-17 to 2026-06-27. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 5 todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“awkward start, chased leaders after 1f, shaken up under 3f out, bumped around 2f out, no extra final 1f”