FORMLAB RACING
THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT
Chepstow · 14:40
Class 5 · 5.07f · Good to Firm
GENERATED 2026-07-16 · 5 RUNNERS PROFILED
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 32.9%winner in the projected 1–2–3 68.5%73 races · latest settled day: #1 10/24, top-3 18/24
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. The measured order tops PUNCHBOWL FLYER (IRE) on 75, 0pts clear of SAVANNAH SMILES (IRE). PUNCHBOWL FLYER (IRE): the quickest of today's early types — but empties in the final 2f · sharp from the stalls. The shape danger is DRAGON GOD — the strongest late speed in this field — profits if the early types overdo it.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 1
PUNCHBOWL FLYER (IRE)
OR 66 · Alexandra Egan / John O'Shea
75.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 5+ / 0−Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayThe top rating in this field (75.0)Proven over the trip (21 tries, beats market expectation at 1.41)Jockey goes well at this track (1.95x market expectation)
2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 3
SAVANNAH SMILES (IRE)
OR 65 · Ashley Lewis / Grace Harris
MARKET backed 4.3 → 3.2
75.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 6−Rated #2 in this field (75.0)Proven over the trip (39 tries, beats market expectation at 1.33)Historically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 6 here)
3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 2
DRAGON GOD
OR 54 · Myla Coppins / Tony Carroll
MARKET backed 4.1 → 3.15
63.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−Rated #3 in this field (63.0)
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1PUNCHBOWL FLYER (IRE)net +8figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), top-2 late speed today, quickest early type, sharp from the stalls, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip
2SAVANNAH SMILES (IRE)net +8figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 speed vs its fields, proven at trip, proven on the going − yard cold
3DRAGON GODnet +7race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, yard positive in today’s setup
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
Worth A Second Look
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
RIVER EDGE  FIGURE #5
Christopher Mason's runners on turf win 27.8% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
contested early pace likely (3 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by front-runners 45% · prominent racers 28% (162 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Moderately stiff — uphill 2f+ then levels/dips; overall demanding on stamina finish. Draw: Round course inconclusive. straight sprint course: high numbers favoured when stalls stands-side, esp. on soft.
Where the pace is drawn · 5 runners · stalls 1–5
12345
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: PUNCHBOWL FLYER (IRE) is 0/5 on softer ground · SAVANNAH SMILES (IRE) is 1/6 on softer ground · DRAGON GOD is unraced on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
PUNCHBOWL FLYER (IRE) FRONT 50.4% 97.4 the quickest of today's early types — but empties in the final 2f · sharp from the stalls
SAVANNAH SMILES (IRE) MID 53.2% 95.7 held up without the late gear (5th of 5 on late speed) — needs them to stop in front
SO SMART (IRE) FRONT 51.3% 97.3 just behind the quickest early pair — presses — but empties in the final 2f · sharp from the stalls
DRAGON GOD HELD-UP 49.9% 100.7 the strongest late speed in this field — profits if the early types overdo it
RIVER EDGE FRONT 50.0% 96.2 just behind the quickest early pair — presses — but empties in the final 2f
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
PUNCHBOWL FLYER (IRE)FRONTtypically ~2.3 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
SO SMART (IRE)FRONTtypically ~1.7 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
RIVER EDGEFRONTtypically ~1 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.06s off the field’s best
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1 PUNCHBOWL FLYER (IRE) FRONT
DRAW 1 · OR 66 · Alexandra Egan / John O'Shea
Yard suits today’s conditions · 5+ / 0−
75.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
75.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 82
Official mark (OR)
66 · last won off 64
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 21 tries · beats market expectation (1.41)
Days since last run
23
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.3s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Run style & finish
Front-runner · finishing speed 97.36% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
1stClass 5 · 6.0f · rated 751stClass 6 · 6.1f · rated 712ndClass 6 · 6.1f · rated 6710thClass 6 · 7.2f · rated 487thClass 6 · 6.1f · rated 38
Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for PUNCHBOWL FLYER (IRE)best 82needs 752025-07-23 · TFR 29 · 6.01f · Good · C62025-08-14 · TFR 65 · 6.07f · Good · C62025-08-25 · TFR 63 · 6.07f · Good · C62025-09-09 · TFR 46 · 6f · Heavy · C62026-02-17 · TFR 60 · 6.09f · Std · C52026-03-03 · TFR 66 · 6.09f · Std · C52026-03-13 · TFR 60 · 7.16f · Std · C6 · off-trip2026-03-17 · TFR 67 · 7.16f · Std · C6 · off-trip2026-04-04 · TFR 64 · 6.09f · Std · C52026-04-25 · TFR 59 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C52026-05-21 · TFR 38 · 6.07f · Good · C62026-06-01 · TFR 48 · 7.16f · Std · C6 · off-trip2026-06-06 · TFR 67 · 6.07f · Soft · C62026-06-15 · TFR 71 · 6.07f · Good · C62026-06-23 · TFR 75 · 6f · Good · C523 Jul 2523 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John O'Shea · 211 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.9 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of <=75/4411.4%0.853/1421.4%2.45
At Chepstow3/2213.6%1.432/1118.2%1.24
On turf8/978.2%0.783/2313.0%1.22
Over 5-6f trips2/464.3%0.543/2412.5%1.17
In Class 4-5 company2/553.6%0.481/166.2%1.16
Too few runners to read reliably
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)6/738.2%0.830/30.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 82 at/around today's trip, clears the ~75.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 5
-0.04 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 5
-0.02s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 6 of 6
Finish · closing speed2nd of 5
97.4%
One-paced late
Stride length4th of 5
7.19 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
23 Jun 26Ffos Las6fGood1stTrue41.7 -0.2299.0-0.08
15 Jun 26Chepstow6fGood1stTrue43.0 -0.0997.5+0.00
6 Jun 26Chepstow6fSoft2ndTrue39.8 -0.0898.9-0.05
1 Jun 26Wolverhampton7fStd10thTrue39.6 +0.0096.6+0.00
25 Apr 26Haydock Park6fGd/Frm8thFast early41.5 +0.1691.7-0.02
4 Apr 26Wolverhampton6fStd3rdTrue40.1 +0.00100.3+0.00
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledvery fast2fledpar3fledpar4fledpar5fledslow6fledslow
Timed runs 2026-04-04 to 2026-06-23. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayThe top rating in this field (75.0)Proven over the trip (21 tries, beats market expectation at 1.41)Jockey goes well at this track (1.95x market expectation)Historically underestimated by the marketA course winner (2 from 5 here)
LTO comment
“led, shaken up under 2f out, headed 1f out, rallied to lead close home”
#2 SAVANNAH SMILES (IRE) MID DOOR 2 · UNDER-RAISED WINNER
DRAW 3 · OR 65 · Ashley Lewis / Grace Harris
MARKET backed 4.3 → 3.2
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 6−
75.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
75.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 75
Official mark (OR)
65 · last won off 61
Record at today's distance
6 wins from 39 tries · beats market expectation (1.33)
Days since last run
19
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.5s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 95.7% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
1stClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 753rdClass 5 · 5.1f · rated 652ndClass 5 · 5.7f · rated 686thClass 5 · 5.7f · rated 197thClass 5 · 6.0f · rated 23
Career sheet · last 18 months · 18 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for SAVANNAH SMILES (IRE)needs 75best 752025-01-20 · TFR 40 · 6f · Std · C62025-06-16 · TFR 58 · 6.07f · Gd/Frm · C52025-06-25 · TFR 65 · 5.73f · Firm · C62025-07-02 · TFR 68 · 5.07f · Gd/Frm · C62025-07-11 · TFR 65 · 5.07f · Gd/Frm · C62025-07-25 · TFR 46 · 5.07f · Good · C52025-08-06 · TFR 69 · 5.27f · Good · C62025-08-19 · TFR 71 · 5.07f · Gd/Sft · C62025-08-29 · TFR 38 · 5.05f · Soft · C52025-09-03 · TFR 75 · 5.05f · Heavy · C62025-09-14 · TFR 28 · 5.73f · Gd/Sft · C22025-09-30 · TFR 57 · 5.73f · Gd/Frm · C52025-10-20 · TFR 28 · 5.73f · Soft · C52026-04-13 · TFR 23 · 6f · Good · C52026-04-29 · TFR 19 · 5.73f · Firm · C52026-06-05 · TFR 68 · 5.73f · Good · C52026-06-15 · TFR 65 · 5.07f · Good · C52026-06-27 · TFR 75 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C620 Jan 2527 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Grace Harris · 445 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.1 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)11/1308.5%0.830/130.0%0.0
In fields of <=7 ✦7/6510.8%0.673/417.3%0.6
In Class 4-5 company7/1016.9%0.833/585.2%0.67
At Chepstow1/342.9%0.192/277.4%0.67
Over 5-6f trips ✦18/2198.2%0.855/746.8%0.8
Above their last winning mark7/977.2%0.614/3611.1%0.82
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 75 at/around today's trip, clears the ~75.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 5
+0.18 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 41.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 5
+0.10s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 5
95.7%
One-paced late
Stride length5th of 5
6.98 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
27 Jun 26Lingfield6fGd/Frm1stTrue41.6 +0.42101.2+0.00
15 Jun 26Chepstow5fGood3rdTrue43.6 +0.3899.3—
5 Jun 26Bath5fGood2ndFast early40.9 -0.1896.5+0.13
29 Apr 26Bath5fFirm6thTrue40.9 +0.0495.5+0.12
13 Apr 26Leicester6fGood7thTrue42.2 -0.1391.9+0.03
20 Oct 25Bath5fSoft7thFast early41.0 +0.5589.8+0.22
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledpar2fledpar3fledslow4fledpar5fledfast6fledpar
Timed runs 2025-10-20 to 2026-06-27. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
4lb above his last winning mark (65 today vs 61)Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 5 todayRated #2 in this field (75.0)Proven over the trip (39 tries, beats market expectation at 1.33)Historically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 6 here)
LTO comment
“prominent, ridden over 1f out, not quicken”
#3 DRAGON GOD HELD-UP
DRAW 2 · OR 54 · Myla Coppins / Tony Carroll
MARKET backed 4.1 → 3.15
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−
63.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
63.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 67
Official mark (OR)
54 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 8 tries
Days since last run
19
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 100.68% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 6 · 5.1f · rated 635thClass 6 · 5.5f · rated 526thClass 6 · 6.1f · rated 473rdClass 6 · 5.1f · rated 563rdClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 61
Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for DRAGON GODneeds 75best 672025-03-28 · TFR 67 · 7f · Std/Slow · C52025-09-08 · TFR 64 · 8.14f · Good · C5 · off-trip2025-12-06 · TFR 36 · 7.16f · Slow · C5 · off-trip2026-03-02 · TFR 59 · 6f · Std · C62026-03-26 · TFR 42 · 6.07f · Std · C62026-04-05 · TFR 56 · 5.05f · Good · C62026-04-25 · TFR 61 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C62026-05-07 · TFR 56 · 5.1f · Gd/Frm · C62026-05-21 · TFR 47 · 6.07f · Good · C62026-06-04 · TFR 52 · 5.5f · Gd/Frm · C62026-06-27 · TFR 63 · 5.07f · Gd/Frm · C628 Mar 2527 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tony Carroll · 2379 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange
Signature angle: at Bath, above their last winning mark, at this time of year (Q2), on turf, off a TFR-FALLING figure trend, with the mark MARK-FLAT, with a CLAIM-7 claimer up
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Chepstow0/170.0%0.06/2128.6%1.7
On turf ✦97/70713.7%1.245/22320.2%1.42
Over 5-6f trips ✦95/63714.9%1.2245/27416.4%1.18
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3) ✦51/49310.3%0.954/449.1%0.72
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 67 is below the ~75.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 5
+0.06 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 5
+0.23s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 5
100.7%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length2nd of 5
7.46 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
27 Jun 26Chepstow5fGd/Frm2ndTrue42.0 +0.24100.9+0.19
4 Jun 26Wetherby5fGd/Frm5thTrue42.7 +0.11104.3+0.45
7 May 26Windsor5fGd/Frm3rdTrue42.3 +0.00100.5+0.30
25 Apr 26Leicester6fGd/Frm3rdTrue43.2 +0.4297.0+0.19
5 Apr 26Bath5fGood9thFast early40.1 -0.4097.5+0.04
2 Mar 26Kempton Park6fStd5thTrue39.7 +0.00103.8+0.19
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.41par2f+0.36par3f+0.29par4f+0.22par5f+0.07par
Timed runs 2026-03-02 to 2026-06-27. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Rated #3 in this field (63.0)Improving fast — last run rated 63, 9pts above his recent average of 54.0Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“slowly away, waited with, effort approaching 2f out, one paced”
#4 SO SMART (IRE) FRONT
DRAW 4 · OR 58 · Ryan Kavanagh / Grace Harris
MARKET backed 8.8 → 4.6
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 6−
56.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
56.3 · ranked #4 here · career best 90
Official mark (OR)
58 · last won off 64
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 39 tries · below market expectation (0.7)
Days since last run
29
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.4s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Run style & finish
Front-runner · finishing speed 97.28% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 6 · 5.0f · rated 494thClass 6 · 5.1f · rated 543rdClass 5 · 5.1f · rated 663rdClass 4 · 5.1f · rated 615thClass 5 · 5.0f · rated 62
Career sheet · last 18 months · 22 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for SO SMART (IRE)best 90needs 752025-04-04 · TFR 61 · 5.05f · Gd/Frm · C42025-04-20 · TFR 45 · 5.05f · Firm · C42025-05-10 · TFR 74 · 4.99f · Gd/Frm · C52025-05-26 · TFR 62 · 5.1f · Gd/Frm · C52025-06-13 · TFR 71 · 5.05f · Good · C42025-06-23 · TFR 60 · 5.07f · Good · C52025-07-08 · TFR 53 · 4.99f · Good · C42025-07-29 · TFR 77 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C62025-08-07 · TFR 45 · 5.07f · Good · C42025-08-22 · TFR 72 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52025-09-12 · TFR 72 · 5.05f · Soft · C52025-09-28 · TFR 44 · 5f · Heavy · C52025-10-20 · TFR 49 · 5.05f · Soft · C52025-11-08 · TFR 58 · 5.1f · Slow · C62025-11-24 · TFR 6 · 5.1f · Std/Slow · C62026-04-05 · TFR 67 · 5.05f · Good · C62026-04-27 · TFR 52 · 5.05f · Gd/Frm · C52026-05-09 · TFR 62 · 4.99f · Gd/Frm · C52026-05-21 · TFR 61 · 5.07f · Good · C42026-05-29 · TFR 66 · 5.07f · Gd/Frm · C52026-06-06 · TFR 54 · 5.07f · Soft · C62026-06-17 · TFR 49 · 5f · Soft · C64 Apr 2517 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Grace Harris · 445 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.1 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)11/1308.5%0.830/130.0%0.0
In fields of <=7 ✦7/6510.8%0.673/417.3%0.6
In Class 4-5 company7/1016.9%0.833/585.2%0.67
At Chepstow1/342.9%0.192/277.4%0.67
Below their last winning mark1/254.0%0.352/316.5%0.68
Over 5-6f trips ✦18/2198.2%0.855/746.8%0.8
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 90 at/around today's trip, clears the ~75.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 5
-0.32 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 41.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 5
-0.05s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 4 of 4
Finish · closing speed3rd of 5
97.3%
One-paced late
Stride length3rd of 5
7.24 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
17 Jun 26Ffos Las5fSoft3rdFast early41.0 -0.0994.9+0.06
6 Jun 26Chepstow5fSoft4thFast early41.2 -0.2795.4+0.00
29 May 26Chepstow5fGd/Frm3rdTrue42.6 -0.92103.1+0.00
9 May 26Lingfield4fGd/Frm5thFast early43.7 -0.0595.4—
27 Apr 26Bath5fGd/Frm6thTrue41.4 -0.2498.7-0.20
5 Apr 26Bath5fGood4thFast early40.2 -0.3396.2-0.01
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledvery fast2f+0.01par3f+0.20slow4f+0.41very slow5f+1.07very slow
Timed runs 2026-04-05 to 2026-06-17. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
6lb below his last winning mark (58 today vs 64)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“pressed leader, ridden approaching 2f out, carried head bit awkwardly, hung badly left over 1f out, one paced”
#5 RIVER EDGE FRONT
DRAW 5 · OR 47 · Rose Dawes / Christopher Mason
MARKET backed 11 → 6.2
Yard suits today’s conditions · 6+ / 0−
47.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
47.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 47
Official mark (OR)
47 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 4 tries
Days since last run
13
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Front-runner · finishing speed 96.17% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 6 · 5.1f · rated 472ndClass 4 · 5.0f · rated 435thClass 5 · 5.0f · rated —4thClass 5 · 5.3f · rated 36
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Christopher Mason · 167 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: over 5-6f trips, on turf
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 4-5 company9/6913.0%1.166/2227.3%2.71
At this time of year (Q3)6/5710.5%0.833/837.5%2.25
In fields of <=76/3815.8%1.045/1241.7%2.06
On turf ✦14/10014.0%1.1310/3627.8%1.98
Over 5-6f trips ✦16/11613.8%1.1610/4025.0%1.85
At Chepstow2/1020.0%1.12/540.0%1.84
Too few runners to read reliably
Coming back after 8 to 14 days (small sample)7/2725.9%1.842/366.7%3.81
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 48 is below the ~75.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 5
+0.05 mph
About the level of its fields · 43.4 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 5
+0.06s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 5
96.2%
One-paced late
Stride length1st of 5
7.61 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
3 Jul 26Chepstow5fGd/Frm3rdTrue42.7 +0.1599.4+0.11
27 Jun 24Leicester5fGd/Frm2ndTrue—99.1—
15 Jun 24Bath5fGood5thFast early—90.2—
3 Jun 24Brighton5fGd/Frm4thTrue44.1 -0.0496.1+0.00
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledfast2fledpar3fledpar4f+0.04slow5f+0.48slow
Timed runs 2024-06-03 to 2026-07-03. · 2 run(s) have no recorded top speed; 2 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Only 4 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina question
LTO comment
“led, pushed along 2f out, headed approaching final 1f, no extra final 100 yds”